क्या 30,000 प्रति क्विंटल की तेज़ी का ग्वार बाज़ार में आ रहा है ?

फ़रवरी महीने की शुरु वात ग्वार गम व ग्वार के भावों में मंदी के साथ शुरू हुई है । ग्वार के भाव 4300 रुपये प्रति क्विंटल से टूट कर 4200/क्विंटल के आस पास आ गये । घटती हुई आवक के साथ भावों में मंदी से किसानों व निवेशकों में निराशा है। पिछले तीन चार साल से ग्वार के भावों में 5% -10% बढ़ोतरी प्रतिवर्ष हो रही है । लेकिन ग्वार के सुस्त भावों के कारण ग्वार की खेती का क्षेत्रफल सिकुड़ता जा रहा है, जिससे की ग्वार के उत्पादन में भी कमी हो रही है । किसान व्यापारी कम उत्पादन के संभावना के कारण ग्वार को पिछले 3-4 साल से अपने-अपने हिसाब कम या ज्यादा मात्र में रोक कर के रखे रखे हुए है। नए ग्वार की आवक बाज़ार में धीर धीर रही है। उसके बावजूद भी ग्वार के भावों में मंदी या सुस्ती छाई हुई है। घटते दामों पर भी निर्यात के अनुसार बाज़ार में ग्वार की उपलब्धता बनी हुई है । कम उत्पादन के बावजूद क्या 30,000 प्रति क्विंटल की तेज़ी का पुराना ग्वार बाज़ार में आ रहा है ?

अक्टूबर के आखिर में ग्वार की नई उपज की आवक बाज़ार में शुरू होती है । इस वर्ष दिसम्बर महीने में ग्वार के भाव में ग्वार की आवक के साथ तेज़ हुए थे । लेकिन उसके बाद ग्वार के भावों में सुस्ती आने लग गयी । किसान व स्टॉकिस्ट 30,000 के भावों के इंतज़ार में अभी भी है । लेकिन बाज़ार में ग्वार व ग्वार गम के भावों की चाल देख कर इतनी तेज़ी अभी नहीं लग रही है । बाज़ार को ग्वार गम के निर्यात के नए आंकड़ों के आने की उम्मीद इस महीने है । अभी तक बाज़ार में नवम्बर महीने तक के ग्वार गम के निर्यात के आकडे उपलब्ध है।

क्या 30,000 प्रति क्विंटल की तेज़ी का ग्वार बाज़ार में आ रहा है ।

पिछले 2-3 महीने में अमेरिका में कच्चे तेल के दाम बढे है । विश्व में कच्चे तेल का उत्पादन बढ रहा । 28 जनवरी तक उपलब्ध आंकड़ों के अनुसार कच्चे तेल का उत्पादन 84.4 मिलियन बैरल प्रति दिन है । कच्चे तेल का यह उत्पादन अपने अभी तक के उच्चतम स्तर पर है । वैश्विक राजनीति में तेल उत्पादक देश वेनेजुएला के संकट के कारण अमेरिका अपने कच्चे तेल का उत्पादन और भी बढ़ायेगा ।

फ़रवरी महीने में ग्वार व ग्वार गम का वायदा व्यापार बीएसई (बोम्बे स्टॉक एक्सचेंज) पर शुरू होने जा रहा है । बाज़ार के विश्लेषकों के अनुसार इससे ग्वार व ग्वार गम के वायदा व्यापार में पारदर्शिता बढ़ेगी । ग्वार के भावों की जानकारी का अन्य महत्वपूर्ण श्रोत खुल जायेगा तथा NCDEX पर ग्वार के वायदा व्यापार की निर्भरता कम होगी । अपुष्ट श्रोत से प्राप्त जानकारी के अनुसार BSE पर ग्वार के वायदा व्यापार की लिस्टिंग 6 फ़रवरी 2019 को जयपुर में होने जा रही है । ग्वार भारत की महत्वपूर्ण निर्यात आधारित औद्योगिक फसल है । अनुमान के मुताबिक बीएसई (बोम्बे स्टॉक एक्सचेंज) पर लिस्टिंग के बाद ग्वार के भावों में तेज़ी आएगी क्योंकि बाजार में ग्वार का स्टॉक व डिलीवरी की लोकेशन बढ़ेगी। ग्वार के व्यापार की ट्रांजेक्सन बढ़ेगी। बीएसई (बोम्बे स्टॉक एक्सचेंज) पर लिस्टिंग के बाद ग्वार पर निवेशकों का भरोसा बढेगा तथा ज्यादा निवेशक ग्वार की और आकर्षित होंगे । सटोरियों की गतिविधि दो-दो वायदा बाज़ार पर एक साथ नहीं हो सकती।

Guar seed and guar gum is giving return in short term trade.

Guar seed and guar gum are major tradable agriculture commodity at NCDEX. Guar is also known as cluster bean as guar pods fruits in clusters on branches. Botanically / scientifically guar is known as Cyamopsis tetragonoloba. Guar gum powder is an important industrial product used for various application in many industries. During this week Guar gum price and Guar seed prices has fallen drastically at lower level, of current cropping season in future trading at NCDEX. In physical market Guar and Guar gum prices are stronger than NCDEX guar price and NCDEX Guar gum price. Spot prices of Guar gum are stronger than the future prices of NCDEX guar Gum. Farmers and traders were expecting the better prices with decreasing arrival and increasing export demand. But NCDEX Guar and NCDEX Guar gum prices are falling against the positive fundamentals.

This year Guar seed farmers and guar gum exporter were expecting better return due to limited supply of guar seed and good demand of guar gum. Rate of guar seed has not crossed the level of INR 4900/ 100 Kg. Prices of Guar gum and guar gum has fallen very low and touched the lowest level of this season. But in-depth analysis we see that prices are moving up and down regularly. Prices has gone up and then fallen, again gone up and fallen again. Any buying at lower level after price fall has given good return. 

Guar Seed and Guar Gum price movement in India- 2018-2019

Next four months February, March, April and May will be very Crucial for guar seed and guar price trends. If the guar prices will remain at higher side, then it will lead to increase the sowing area of Guar. If the price of guar seed and price of guar gum will remain toward the lower side, then the sowing area of Guar will come down further. With falling prices people are discussing that application of guar gum substitute has increased in oil and natural gas industry. This is not true. Oil drilling activities in USA are higher than previous year. 1075 Oil rigs are active in USA as on 11th January 2019, which are 136 higher than previous year. Guar gum emerging as Xanthan gum replacement.

Guar seed and Guar gum commodities are being quoted strong in physical markets due to strong buying of of guar gum. Prices of Guar seed and Guar gum both are quoted stronger than previous close. Forward price of Guar seed and Guar gum are also strong due to buying at lower levels in NCDEX. Bold quality of guar seed is traded at Rs 4300/100Kg and average quality normal guar seed is traded at Rs 4200/100 Kg. Standard quality guar gum is traded at Rs 8400/100 kg. In interior location, guar seed is traded up to 4100/100 Kg. Guar seed is being quoted high in the future market. At NCDEX (National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd) guar seed-10MT is closed at Rs 4152, 4207, 4262 higher by 0.25 percent or INR 10.5/100 Kg, 0.25 percent or INR 10.5/100 Kg, 0.48 percent or INR 20.5/100 Kg with open interest of 10660, 114700, 10590 for January, February and March month contracts.

Guar gum is being also traded strong in the future market. At NCDEX (National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd) Guar gum- 5MT closed at Rs 8180, 8240 higher by 0.59 percent or Rs 48/100Kg, 0.06 percent or Rs 5/100Kg with an open interest of 1380, 70005 for January and February month contracts.

Guar gum demand will remain strong in last quarter 2018-19

Guar gum demand will remain strong than previous year. India has exported 3,30,978 MT guar gum by the end of October month. Guar is major exportable farm commodity form India. Major demand of Guar arises from Oil and natural Gas industry. Crop is cultivated from June to October and major arrival of crop starts to come from October to January. This year production of Guar seed as lower than was previous year. As per the Agriculture Department of Govt of, This year guar seed was cultivated on 34,18,000 Hactare area. As per market man average Yield of Guar seed in Rajasthan is around 250 Kg / hectare. As per these inputs Total production of Guar will be between 80,00,000 – 90,00,000 Bags. 

Guar gum is used in the oil drilling activities in USA. As per the baker hudge rig count Oil drilling activities are increasing in USA. Currently 1075 oil rigs are active in USA. Which are 151 more than the previous year. Shel oil production is increasing in USA. Demand of heating oil and Gas remains high in Cold countries of northern globe. Shale oil and gas production will increase in USA and Canada. Oil and gas exploration in south American countries are increasing and export of Indian guar gum is also increasing in south American countries. 

Guar gum demand will remain strong.

Demand of Indian Guar and Churi Korma is also high from China due to trade ware between China and USA. Prices and Demand of Churi Korma is high in market. There is 48-52 % protein content in Guar Churi Korma. Guar protein is used as substitute of Soya meal and Soya protein. 

Guar seed and Guar gum commodities are being quoted strong in physical markets due to strong export demand of guar gum. Prices of Guar seed and Guar gum both are quoted higher then previous close. Forward price of Guar seed and Guar gum are also strong due to buying at lower levels in local markets. Bold quality of guar seed is traded at Rs 4400/100Kg and average quality guar seed is traded at Rs 4300/100 Kg. Standard quality guar gum is traded at Rs 8650/100 kg. In interior location, guar seed is traded up to 4200/100 Kg. Guar seed is being traded strong in the future market. At NCDEX (National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd) guar seed-10MT is closed at Rs 4348, 4394, 4445 higher by 0.24 percent or INR 10.5/100 Kg, 0.26 percent or INR 11.5/100 Kg, 0.58 percent or INR 25.5/100 Kg with open interest of 45160, 87190, 4730 for January, February and March month contracts. 

Guar gum is being also traded strong in the future market. At NCDEX (National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd) Guar gum- 5MT closed at Rs 8608, 8718, 8810 higher by 0.34 percent or Rs 29/100Kg, 0.5 percent or Rs 43/100Kg, 1.33 percent or Rs 116/100 Kg with an open interest of 11675, 65050, 980 for January February and March month contracts.

8923 MT more guar gum has exported from April-2018 to Nov-2018 than previous year.

As per the data released by the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) Indian has exported 330978 MT guar gum. Values of guar gum export fromApril-2018 to November-2018 is INR 3052 Crore or USD 442 Million at the rate of USD1335 / MT. Previous year during the same period India exported 322055 MT guar gum. Value of exported guar gum powder was INR 2589 Crore or USD 401 Million at the rate of 1246 USD/MT. This is very positive news for Indian guar gum industry. Export of Guar gum powder is increasing continuously since last four years.

Export of Indian guar gum is increasing with increasing oil and gas drilling activities. Shale crude oil and natural gas production is increasing. Traditionally Saudi Arabia was the leader of crude oil production and Qatar was leader of Natural gas production. Now USA has become the new leader of crude oil and Natural Gas production. USA is using fracking / hydraulic fracturing activities for shale oil and gas production. Guar gum powder is used as drilling chemical in this process. USA, Norway, China, Netherland, Russia, UK, Germany, Italy. Argentina are major destination for export of Indian Guar gum. In monetary term India has exported guar gum of 17.93 % more value in Indian rupees and 10.10% more value in USD in comparison to previous year for the same period.

Export of Guar gum from India , Data of 2018-19 is only up to November-2018 ( 8 months) 

                                                                     (Source APEDA- Ministry of Commerce and Industry)

As per existing trends it is estimated that this year quantity of Guar gum export will cross the figure 6,00,000 MT. This will be very positive trend for Indian Guar gum industry and Indian guar gum seed farmers. This year Guar seed production is lower than previous years. As per Baker Hughes Rig Count ,1083 Rigs are active in USA which are 154 more than previous years rig count at the same time. Rig count is as indication of demand of drilling services and chemicals. 

Guar seed and Guar gum commodities are being traded strong on physical markets due to strong export demand of guar gum. Prices of Guar seed and Guar gum both are quoted higher then previous close. Forward price of Guar seed and Guar gum are also strong due to buying at lower levels in local markets. Bold quality of guar seed is traded at Rs 4300/100Kg and average quality guar seed is traded at Rs 4200/100 Kg. Standard quality guar gum is traded at Rs 8400/100 kg. In interior location, guar seed is traded up to 4100/100 Kg. Guar seed is being traded strong in the future market. At NCDEX (National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd) guar seed-10MT is closed at Rs 4350, 4393, 4439 higher by 2.38 percent or INR 101/100 Kg, 2.48 percent or INR 106.5/100 Kg, 2.53 percent or INR 109.5/100 Kg with open interest of 81930, 66230, 1880 for January, February and March month contracts. 

Guar gum is being also traded strong in the future market. At NCDEX (National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd) Guar gum- 5MT closed at Rs 8572, 8669, 8572 higher by 2.99 percent or Rs 249/100Kg, 2.95 percent or Rs 248/100Kg, 0.6 percent or Rs 51/100 Kg with an open interest of 28430, 47375, 330 for January February and March month contracts.

Export of Major Agriculture Commodities from India 2018-19 ( April to November only )