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Guar gum prices slipped below Rs 10,000 level under selling pressure

Since last two days prices of Guar seed and guar gum are declining continuously in future commodity market. On Monday it was bloodbath for Guar seed and guar gum prices. Market closed with lower circuit. In this week new budget will be put in front of parliament by the central government. Before the announcement of the new budget, gaur seed and guar gum prices are under the pressure of profit booking at upper level.

The Oil rig count data released but Baker Hughes are showing the declining trend in active rig in USA. Currently 621 oil rigs are active in USA which are 150 active rig lesser than the previous year rig count. Major demand of guar gum is driven from the oil and natural gas industry. Active oil rig are major indication of demand trend. Generally NCDEX work are price discovery tool for the Guar seed and guar gum prices.

Guar gum prices slipped below Rs 10,000 level, Profit booking at upper Level

For next 8-9 month supply will remain the same it will not change up to the arrival of new crop in market. Price movement will depend only on the demand of product. There are two main demand, Demand of the gaur gum powder, Demand guar meal (Churi Korma), beside these if there will be any change in the demand of other animal feed product or guar gum substitute then price may move.

The pressure on prices in future market is transferring to local physical market. There is selling pressure in local markets, so buyers are quoting low for the available stock. There are not trading on current level of prices. The current price fall seems the selling pressure. Prices are expected to bounced back after the budget.

Application of guar gum increasing slowly and slowly. Recently Nestle has launched a guar gum based health supplement product, Nestle Resource Fiber Choice.  It is guar gum based product partially hydrolyzed guar gum is used in this product. There is 98% guar gum in this product. As claimed by Nestle this product is good for Gut Health.

                                                                      @copyright of Nestle

Guar seed and guar gum prices are weak in the local physical markets. Prices of Guar seed and guar gum are quoted lower than Commodity exchanges NCDEX. Future trading of Guar seed and guar gum is also expected to remain low with selling pressure at upper levels. Good quality of Guar seed is traded at Rs 5200/100Kg and average quality Guar seed is traded at Rs 4900/100 Kg. Standard quality guar gum is traded at Rs 9900/100 kg. In interior location, Guar seed is traded up to 4800/100 Kg. Guar seed is being traded weak in the future market. At NCDEX (National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd) Guar seed-10MT is traded at Rs 5304 stable at previous close for February contract.

guar gum is also traded week in the future market. At NCDEX (National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd) guar gum- 5MT is traded at Rs 9968, 10115 lower by 1.39 percent or Rs 140/100Kg, 1.33 percent or Rs 136/100 Kg with an open interest of 35955, 21950 for Feb and March month contracts.

Guar Seed and Guar Gum Prices may strengthen with Improving Global Economic Activities

Guar Seed and Guar Gum Prices may strengthen with Improving Global Economic Activities

Strengthening Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil prices are improving in the global market with increasing economic activities. Currently, crude oil is being traded at an eight-week high. The global economy is showing strong signs of improvement. Brent crude oil is being traded at USD 82.43 per barrel, and WTI Crude oil Prices are being traded at USD 77.363 per barrel. Both indicators of crude oil are showing strong signs. Improved crude oil prices will support guar gum prices from their current level. The demand for guar gum is expected to improve. Physical demand for Guar gum will strengthen guar seed and guar gum prices in the local market.

USD and INR Exchange Rate

As the exchange rate of USD is improving, it will carry more cash flow into the market. The demand for guar gum is expected to rise from this level due to increased cash flow. Importers will engage in maximum contracts with the increased cash flow. A weakened rupee will strengthen the current level.

Guar Seed and Guar Gum Prices may strengthen with Improving Global Economic Activities
 
Guar Seed and Guar Gum Prices may strengthen with Improving Global Economic Activities

Guar Production Estimates

As per the data released by the State Government of Rajasthan, the estimated guar seed farming was done on 28,92,840 hectares, and the estimated guar seed production will be 17,48,781 metric tons of guar seed production. Prices are expected to improve with increasing economic activities. Prices will not fall further from this level. There are fewer chances of a downfall in guar seed and guar gum prices.

The current level may yield good returns with a lower risk factor. Physical demand will also increase. In the last 12 months, 8-10 new Guar Gum factories have been established in Rajasthan under different government schemes. Even two plants have been established for modified Guar Gum Powder manufacturing. Modified guar gum is used for premium quality toiletry and cosmetic products.

In the week of January from 22nd January 2023 to 28th January 2023, NCDEX guar seed prices were being traded at INR 5431, 5490 per 100 kg (quintal) with open interest of 65,375 and 25,600 for 20 Feb 2024 and 20th March 2024 contracts. NCDEX guar seed spot price is INR 5454 per quintal. NCDEX guar gum prices are being traded at INR 10546.10695 per 100 kg (quintal) for 20 Feb 2024 and 20th March 2024 contracts with open interest of 43,715 and 14,275. NCDEX guar gum spot price is INR 10719 per quintal. In local physical market yards (Mandi), guar seed prices are quoted at INR 5200 per quintal, and guar gum prices are quoted at INR 10500 per quintal.

Child Labour In Guar Farming and Guar Gum Processing Industry

Child Labour In Guar Farming and Guar Gum Processing Industry

Child labour is major social problem/issue in Agriculture. In some under developed countries child labor is used for the agricultural production/ farming and further process. Some crops are labor intensive and they require extensive labor to complete the agricultural operations. Like paddy plantation, Cotton harvesting, Vegetable farming required bulk labors, Some time labor is not available or costly then child labor is used to complete the operations. Some greedy parents and contractors make a nexus and right of the child are abused, they are used to make more and more money.

About Guar 

Guar is a vegetable crop traditionally grown in western Rajasthan. The Guar farming is also scattered in nearby areas of western Rajasthan, like south Punjab, south west and west Haryana, north west Gujarat and neighboring country Sindh (Pakistan). As per last year crop cultivation data Guar crop is being cultivated on 30,00,000 (3 Million) Hectares of Area. The climatic condition of this region is hot and dry. Guar crop is taken as monsoon crop or rainy period from last of June to Mid of November. 

The opportunity cost of Guar crop farming is almost zero, means farmers take the guar crop as the last option. Either he will leave his farm bran or he will take Guar crop. If the rainfall is good and on time then farmer prefers to take other crops (millets, pulses, oilseed, cereals) instead of Guar crops. As per current conditions around 95%-98% Guar farming is rain fed or based on natural rainfall only. No Artificial irrigation is given to Guar crop. Sometimes farmers give lifesaving irrigation to guar crops if he has extra water or other source of irrigation. Generally the farmers who have irrigation source or irrigation water they go for the other crop over guar crop.


Child Labour In Guar Farming and Guar Gum Processing Industry, Guar , guar gum, guar gum cultivation
Child Labor Foot Prints In Guar Farming and Guar Gum Processing Industry

Labor Required in Guar Farming and Guar Gum processing

Guar is a rain fed crop grown in desert areas. In Desert, the land sizes are very big in comparison to other areas. Mostly guar farms are very big in size. If climatic conditions are favorable then Guar farming faces a lot of labor shortage. There are various stages of guar crop cycle where labor is required to complete the operations like Sowing, weeding, Nutrients application, agrochemical application, Harvesting, Threshing, loading, unloading and transportation. Since the cropping season is the same in entire region so the timing of these operations also remains the same. The requirement of labor used to also increases suddenly at the same time.

Earlier Guar farming was completed by the Animal Drawn equipment and manually. Generally whole family used to engage in guar farming. Every family member used contributes in operation. Even Children were also involved in agricultural operations. Sometime hired labour used to also come with whole family and the child were used to engage in guar farming knowingly or unknowingly. Even these practices are also followed in some backward community and families where the numbers of Children are high. These factors will be discussed later. 

Generally child labours foot prints are not found in guar farming area and guar gum processing industry. The Scenario of child labour foot print has changed now a day. There are various factors that keep the child labour away from Guar farming.

Structure of the Guar plant (Cyamopsis tetragonoloba)

There are minor white transparent spikes on guar plant. These spikes are found on entire plant including stem, leaves, pods and branches. Generally these spikes are very soft at initial stage.  As plant mature and move toward completion of the life cycle. These Spikes become very hard and dry. As it comes in contact of skin then it start itching.  If the skin is soft specially the skin of non-labourer person or Children, then itching hurts hard. They can’t stand or stay in guar farm more than 10-15 minutes if the skin is exposed to guar plant. The itching will keep continue for whole day. Children in guar farming area knows this property and they dotn enter in guar farm. No parent wants that their children should go in Guar farm. Even hired labour doesn’t prefer to do take labour work in Guar farm. The skin of farmers are harder so they feel lesser itching. Even regular guar farmers enter in Guar farm with complete cover. Guar plant itself asks non farmer and children to keep away.

Guar Growing Belt in Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Pakistan

Lesser Number of Children 

Earlier there were more children so a group of children used to go to farms but now the number of children has dropped to 2-3. Due to lesser number is children, Farmers take care their children properly and they don’t want that their children leave their study/school and go to farm with them. Scenario has changed, children goes to school regularly and stay away from working in Guar fields.

Guar Farms are larger in size

Guar Filed are very big in size and production is lower in rain fed farms. Children can’t work in big farms. It required a full capacity labour. Since size of farm is big children can’t work properly and they make more wastage while working. Due to big farm it is very hard to collect all the wastage. When the farms are small or crop is densely cultivated then any one can’t work in field. But in guar farm if unskilled worker work then he makes a lots of losses.

Lesser Farm operations

In guar farming the farming operation is lesser in comparison to other crops. So the requirement of the labor is not frequently. After the sowing labor is required at the time of harvesting. Harvesting can't be completed by the children. Because of the itching caused by the guar plant no one goes to guar farm at the time of harvesting except skilled labors. Even at the time threshing of seeds the duct contains the spikes and no one goes close to threshing sites

Use of Mechanical Agricultural implements 

Earlier farmers used to do the guar farming by manually or animals but now they use tractors and machines. Tractors and machines are more efficient. Even there is shortage of the labor and labor is not efficient in guar farming. For the sowing there are tractors, For agrochemicals there are spray machines, for harvesting there are harvesting machine / combine, for threshing there are threshing machines. Transportation is done by the tractors. The dependence on hired labor is going down day by day.

Guar Growing Belt in Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Pakistan

Automatic Guar Gum Processing plants

Guar seed is first processed to the guar splits. After that they process the guar splits into the guar gum power. Guar gum powder is further processed into some modified guar gum powder. Previously guar processing industry was manual, a lot of labors were required but now things have changed. The plants have turned to fully automatic plants; some plants are PLC based plants. Labor requirements for these processing plants are very low. These plants require only highly skilled professionals. There are no possibilities of child labor foot prints in these guar gum processing plants.

Awareness of community,

Except few backward communities most of guar farmers come from progressions communities. They are all aware about the drawback of child labor. They don't employ the child labor. Guar farming is not a year around job opportunity. People/labor avoid working in guard field. 

Conclusion 

The entire value chain of guar is child labor free. In general no foot print of the child labor is noticed. Generally farmers in Guar growing belt are progressing and they give importance to child education over the labor work. The results of this mind set are also visible. Most of children of these farmers are taking higher education. After the education they prepare for competitive examinations and get selected for the well paid government Jobs.

In some backward religious communities which have more numbers of children due to illiteracy they follow the practices of Child labor the entire farmer's family member keeps working if agricultural farms. This type of under-educated religious community lives in Barmer, Jaisalmer and Jodhpur Districts. Their religious leadership orders them to attend the religious education system. Government and private organizations must create awareness about eradication of child labor in agriculture. 

Prices of Guar Seed and Guar Gum will remain stable in 2024.

After the harvesting of the guar crop, guar seed and guar gum prices aren't moving upwards. Although the market was bullish on guar seed and guar gum prices earlier due to information about lower production and higher demand, guar prices are now stagnating. Farmers, traders, manufacturers, and exporters are all waiting for a price rise for reasonable profit. There can be various factors behind the price movement. According to export data, exports are increasing. As for supply, there is no shortage of guar seed in the market, and production data for guar seed are also positive, showing no decline in production.

Export of Guar Gum

Guar is a major exportable agricultural commodity from India. Guar gum exports directly impact guar seed and guar gum prices. According to data released by the Central Agriculture Ministry, guar gum exports are increasing in the year 2023-24. From April 2023 to October 2023, there has been a 30% increase in export quantity and a 65% increase in export value in USD. These data are available up to October-2023 only. One new data will be released then the new data will be analyzed later on.

S.N.

Month

Quantity ( MT)

Value (USD Million )

1

April-2023

30184

35.14

2

May-2023

35141

40.17

3

June-2023

33744

39.49

4

July-2023

39405

45.50

5

August-2023

42308

51.34

6

September-2023

35528

47.42

7

October-2023

39761

58.02

Export of guar gum from  India 2023 - 2024

Crude oil Prices

According to market reports crude oil prices are falling continuously. Due to storage US storage build the prices have settled 1% lower than previous close. The crude oil inventory has increased in USA. Currently Brent crude oil is being traded around USD 76.80 /Barrel. WTI crude oil is being traded around USD 71.37/Barrel. There are also news that Saudi Arabia will cut the oil prices to its buyers from all regions. Global supply of the crude oil is increasing from USA. Supply of crude oil is smooth in Global market.  Even attacks on Oil shipping tankers by the Houthi “The Yemeni Houthi terrorists” could not interrupt the supply of the crude oil.  Due to falling prices India is also increasing its oil reserves by importing the cheaper crude oil.

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 Prices of Guar Seed and Guar Gum will remain stable in 2024.

Oil Rig Count

Baker Hughes rig count data are also indicating that demand of crude oil is lower. The active oil rigs are lower than previous year. As per the oil rig count data released by Backer Hughes number of active rigs have increased increasing internationally, but in USA the oil rigs are lower than previous year.  In comparison to last year Internationally 955 rigs are active which 55 rigs are, more than the previous active year. In United stated there are 621 rigs active which are 151 rigs lesser than the previous year’s rigs count. There is decline in total active rig count in USA, Canada and Internationally. The Oil and Natural oil gas industry is major demand creator for the Guar gum in international market. 

Global Politics

Many wars are going on internationally but most are confined to specific geographical location. Severity of the wars is very low. There are no escalations on other areas. Israel – Hamas war is about to end very soon. Yemani Houthi terrorist were also supposed to jump in Israel – Hamas war but they limited to attack on nearby coastal area. Russia Ukraine war is also going on slow pace. There are possibilities that US will very soon attack Houthi controlled Yemen to secure the international Trade. Russia - Ukraine war has entered in 686 days. The intensity of war has decreased. No major escalation of war has noticed. 

Parliament Election in India 

Assembly elections were held last year in India in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana. New Governments have formed in these states. Rajasthan is a guar growing state; the new govt will likely impact the guar business in Rajasthan. National parliament elections at central level are pending. These elections will be held in April and May Month. After that new trade policies will be formed and investment will move. Guar Industry requires a lot of investment especially in R&D and processing .

Supply of guar 

Harvesting has completed up to last month so no major arrival is remaining for this year. Now new arrival will come in next season. There is no supply shortage. The market and traders are also not in buying drive. Farmers are carrying their produce to market as per their financial requirements. Prices will not be bullish. The current level will sustain until new demand from oil and natural gas industry doesn’t rise. Entire Kharif crop production is lower due to poor climatic conditions, so Indian agriculture production will remain under pressure of importing of agriculture food / commodities. For Guar prices will remain stable no need to buying the stock or hold for short term gain.

In this week of January, NCDEX guar seed price is being traded at INR 5396, 5460, 5511 / 100 Kg (Quintal) for 19th Jan 2024, 20 Feb 2024 and 20thMarch 2024 contracts. NCDEX guar seed spot price is INR 5405/Quintal. NCDEX guar gum price is being traded INR 10448, 10625, 10766 / 100 Kg (Quintal) for 19th Jan 2024, 20 Feb 2024 and 20thMarch 2024 contracts. NCDEX guar gum spot price is INR 10645/Quintal. In local physical markets (Mandi) guar seed prices is INR 5200/Quintal and guar gum prices is INR 10500/Quintal.

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