The guar cultivation area has decreased. According to data released by different State Governments, the estimated guar seed sowing area is 29,02,732 hectares. This data has been released by the State Governments of Gujarat and Rajasthan. No significant cultivation area has been noticed in Haryana, and the Haryana government has not mentioned guar crop in their advance estimates.
Guar Cultivation area has
fallen
According to the Rajasthan Government, guar sowing has been done on 27,99,489 hectares, which is 103% of the target sowing area of 27,00,000 hectares. During the previous year, sowing was completed on 30,79,450 hectares, which is 2,80,450 hectares less than the previous year. According to data released by the Gujarat Government, guar has been cultivated on 1,03,243 hectares in Gujarat. During the same period in the previous year, there was guar cultivation on 1,04,081 hectares.
Crop Damage Due to Rainfall at Maturity:
Despite a good guar cultivation sowing area, the rainfall was not sufficient for the maturity of guar crops. Crop damage has been noticed on a large area due to poor rainfall or no rainfall at the maturity stage. Even the quality of guar arriving in the market is not good due to rains after crop harvest.
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Guar Cultivation area has fallen |
Worsening Geopolitics and an Increase in Disputes:
Geopolitics is at its worst level, with all the continents directly engaged in wars and conflicts. Some of them include Ukraine-Russia, Azerbaijan-Armenia, Israel-Hamas (Palestine), and many other countries like Iran, Turkey, Qatar, Lebanon, and Syria making provocative statements. Due to this worsening geopolitics, the demand for fuel is increasing, and fuel prices are also rising. If a regional war were to erupt, such as Israel-Palestine (Hamas), there are chances that crude oil prices may soar up to USD 160 per barrel.
Increase in Oil Drilling/Fracking Activities
If the prices of crude oil rise, global fracking activities will increase. There will be an increased demand for drilling chemicals, and the export demand for guar gum will rise globally. Besides the USA, European, Chinese, and Russian companies will also explore new drilling fields. Crude oil is crucial for the global economy, and a regional war in the Middle East could lead to interruptions in crude oil supply globally. Indian guar gum powder is primarily consumed by the oil and natural gas industry. Crude oil production activities are on the rise globally, with currently 940 active oil rigs, 61 more than the previous year at the same time.
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| Guar seed cultivation area Rajasthan from India 2023-2024 data |
Drought in Canadian Prairies and Lower Hay Yield
In addition to the demand for crude oil production, the demand for guar protein (Churi Korma) will increase in the cattle/animal feed industry. Due to drought in Canadian prairies, cattle farmers are seeking feed alternatives. Drought and high temperatures have reduced the yield, with this year's hay yield being 40% less than the 10-year average. The meat production sector is trying to adapt to the current situation by switching to alternative feeds like canola by-products, hay, meal, silage, straw, or other available alternatives. Guar meal and guar korma are also good sources of high protein.
Guar seed and Guar gum Market data
In this week, NCDEX guar seed prices are being traded at INR 5696, 5783, and 5832per 100 kg (quintal) for the contracts expiring on 20th November 2023, 20th December 2023, and 19th January 2024. NCDEX guar seed spot price is INR 5664 per quintal. NCDEX guar gum prices are being traded at INR 11417 and 117576 per 100 kg (quintal) for the contracts expiring on 20th November 2023 and 20th December 2023. NCDEX guar gum spot price is INR 11494 per quintal. In local physical markets (Mandi), guar seed prices are INR 5600 per quintal, and guar gum prices are INR 11500 per quintal.
