Prices of Guar Seed and Guar Gum will remain stable in 2024.

After the harvesting of the guar crop, guar seed and guar gum prices aren't moving upwards. Although the market was bullish on guar seed and guar gum prices earlier due to information about lower production and higher demand, guar prices are now stagnating. Farmers, traders, manufacturers, and exporters are all waiting for a price rise for reasonable profit. There can be various factors behind the price movement. According to export data, exports are increasing. As for supply, there is no shortage of guar seed in the market, and production data for guar seed are also positive, showing no decline in production.

Export of Guar Gum

Guar is a major exportable agricultural commodity from India. Guar gum exports directly impact guar seed and guar gum prices. According to data released by the Central Agriculture Ministry, guar gum exports are increasing in the year 2023-24. From April 2023 to October 2023, there has been a 30% increase in export quantity and a 65% increase in export value in USD. These data are available up to October-2023 only. One new data will be released then the new data will be analyzed later on.

S.N.	Month	Quantity ( MT)	Value (USD Million )
1	April-2023	30184	35.14
2	May-2023	35141	40.17
3	June-2023	33744	39.49
4	July-2023	39405	45.50
5	August-2023	42308	51.34
6	September-2023	35528	47.42
7	October-2023	39761	58.02

Export of guar gum from  India 2023 - 2024

Crude oil Prices

According to market reports crude oil prices are falling continuously. Due to storage US storage build the prices have settled 1% lower than previous close. The crude oil inventory has increased in USA. Currently Brent crude oil is being traded around USD 76.80 /Barrel. WTI crude oil is being traded around USD 71.37/Barrel. There are also news that Saudi Arabia will cut the oil prices to its buyers from all regions. Global supply of the crude oil is increasing from USA. Supply of crude oil is smooth in Global market.  Even attacks on Oil shipping tankers by the Houthi “The Yemeni Houthi terrorists” could not interrupt the supply of the crude oil.  Due to falling prices India is also increasing its oil reserves by importing the cheaper crude oil.

 Prices of Guar Seed and Guar Gum will remain stable in 2024.

Oil Rig Count

Baker Hughes rig count data are also indicating that demand of crude oil is lower. The active oil rigs are lower than previous year. As per the oil rig count data released by Backer Hughes number of active rigs have increased increasing internationally, but in USA the oil rigs are lower than previous year.  In comparison to last year Internationally 955 rigs are active which 55 rigs are, more than the previous active year. In United stated there are 621 rigs active which are 151 rigs lesser than the previous year’s rigs count. There is decline in total active rig count in USA, Canada and Internationally. The Oil and Natural oil gas industry is major demand creator for the Guar gum in international market. 

Global Politics

Many wars are going on internationally but most are confined to specific geographical location. Severity of the wars is very low. There are no escalations on other areas. Israel – Hamas war is about to end very soon. Yemani Houthi terrorist were also supposed to jump in Israel – Hamas war but they limited to attack on nearby coastal area. Russia Ukraine war is also going on slow pace. There are possibilities that US will very soon attack Houthi controlled Yemen to secure the international Trade. Russia - Ukraine war has entered in 686 days. The intensity of war has decreased. No major escalation of war has noticed. 

Parliament Election in India 

Assembly elections were held last year in India in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana. New Governments have formed in these states. Rajasthan is a guar growing state; the new govt will likely impact the guar business in Rajasthan. National parliament elections at central level are pending. These elections will be held in April and May Month. After that new trade policies will be formed and investment will move. Guar Industry requires a lot of investment especially in R&D and processing .

Supply of guar 

Harvesting has completed up to last month so no major arrival is remaining for this year. Now new arrival will come in next season. There is no supply shortage. The market and traders are also not in buying drive. Farmers are carrying their produce to market as per their financial requirements. Prices will not be bullish. The current level will sustain until new demand from oil and natural gas industry doesn’t rise. Entire Kharif crop production is lower due to poor climatic conditions, so Indian agriculture production will remain under pressure of importing of agriculture food / commodities. For Guar prices will remain stable no need to buying the stock or hold for short term gain.

In this week of January, NCDEX guar seed price is being traded at INR 5396, 5460, 5511 / 100 Kg (Quintal) for 19th Jan 2024, 20 Feb 2024 and 20thMarch 2024 contracts. NCDEX guar seed spot price is INR 5405/Quintal. NCDEX guar gum price is being traded INR 10448, 10625, 10766 / 100 Kg (Quintal) for 19th Jan 2024, 20 Feb 2024 and 20thMarch 2024 contracts. NCDEX guar gum spot price is INR 10645/Quintal. In local physical markets (Mandi) guar seed prices is INR 5200/Quintal and guar gum prices is INR 10500/Quintal.

Guar Seed supply will remain tight due to lower production

As per export data released by the “Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority”(APEDA) for the period of April-2019 to August-2019, guar gum export has declined by 18.28% or 40,648 MT, from 2,22,454 MT in year 2018 to 181806 in current year 2019 for the same period. Declining export of guar gum year by year is concern for guar growing farmers and whole guar gum industry. Guar gum is a unique agriculture product which can be used for different purpose due to its physical and chemical property. 

Major portion of guar gum is exported for oil and natural gas industry. Currently oil and natural gas industry is stagnate. Oil prices are stable due to over production by OPEC countries, which is sufficient for the global demand. Crude oil is being traded around USD 64.27 /Barrel. High dependency on oil and natural gas industry is not is favour for Indian guar gum industry. There is requirement of regular research and development to increase the consumption of Guar gum in food industry and other industries. 

Guar Seed supply will remain tight due to lower production

Oil rig count is decreasing in USA. As per Baker Hudges oil rig count currently 803 oil rig are active in USA which is lower by 276 then previous year oil rig count during same period. Declining oil rig count and drilling activities is not a positive news fro the indian guar gum industry. Global demand of crude oil will boost the oil prices and that will lead to increase in new oil drilling activities in USA. Gulf countries are covering their trade deficit by increasing the crude oil production. Increasing crude oil production by gulf countries is keeping pressure on crude oil prices. 

Due to poor performance of guar commodity in previous years, farmers are making distance from Guar cultivation. This year Guar crop was cultivated on 30,87,789 Hectare area. As per advance estimate by Rajasthan Govt guar production is expected to remain around 10,31,427 MT in Rajasthan for Kharif-2019. 2,00,000 MT guar seed production is expected from other guar growing states. This year rainfall was not distributed properly in whole guar growing belt. Farmers preferred Bajra crop over Guar crop due to better performance of Bajra crop. 

There are no any major chances of price rise in near future due to declining demand of guar gum powder, but prices may boost due to tight supply as production of guar seed is limited. Cultivation area is also shrinking. Farmers can hold 70% production for next 3-4 months. 

In this week NCDEX guar seed price is INR 4135/Quintal for 20th December contract. BSE Guar seed price for 20th December contract is INR 4093 /Quintal. NCDEX spot price is INR 4075/Quintal. NCDEX guar gum price is INR 7510/Quintal for 20th December contract. NCDEX spot price is INR 7565/Quintal. In local physical markets (Mandi) guar seed prices is INR 4300/Quintal and guar gum prices is INR 7600/Quintal.

Export of Guar products will increase in 2019-2020

Guar is major farm export from India after Rice. It always remains hot tradable agriculture commodity. India is major exporter of Guar in world. India export Guar to More than 100 countries. USA, China, Russia, Norway, Netherlands, Argentina, U.K. Italy, Chilie are major export destination for Indian Gaur. Last year ( 2018-2019) India exported 5,13,211 MT of guar products values of 676 Million USD or INR 4,70,704 Crore with 12.89 % growth in export quantity on previous year ( 2017-2018) export. India Export Guar in many forms like Guar gum powder, Guar protein, Guar Splits, Guar meal. 

Rainfall has covered most of Guar growing belt and there is sufficient rainfall for sowing of the Guar. As per Rajasthan Govt guar sowing has completed on 91% of targeted guar sowing area. Till 30th August guar sowing has completed on 28,41,100 hectare Area during the same period guar sowing was completed 30,80,000 hectare Area. Major production of Guar comes from the rainfed area. If the second round rainfall will remain good then production of guar crop will be normal. The production of guar seed will be around 60,00,000 to 80,00,000 Bags ( 100 Kg each ).

If we look at the annual lowest price of commodities, guar is preforming well. Annually it is growing 10-15% since last four years. Due to its export potential, it is strong commodity it is used by many industries. Use of Guar gum powder is using for human consumption. Except food processing it is used as dietary fibber. Many pharmaceutical companies are making guar based dietary fiber supplements. It is used to clean the intestine and constipation. IT is also researched that guar increases the metabolism and help the diabetic patients. 

Prices of guar keep moving up and down till fresh guar crop will be available for sale in market. Next one month is very important as a lot of disease attacks in September month. If the rain will not regular then crop may damage due to scarcity of moisture. There can be various factors which may impact the prices. Pakistan has also received the sufficient rainfall in guar growing belt of Pakistan. New production will come in last week of October but condition of crop will be clear by the end of September Month. 

In this week NCDEX guar seed price is INR 4215/Quintal for 20thSeptember contract. BSE guar seed price for 30th September contract is INR 4192 /Quintal; NCDEX spot price is INR 4250/Quintal. NCDEX guar gum price is INR 8400/Quintal for 20thSeptember contract. NCDEX spot price is INR 8400/Quintal. In local physical markets (Mandi) guar seed prices is INR 4400/Quintal and guar gum prices is INR 8600/Quintal.

Guar crop sowing has completed on 89% of target guar sowing area

Rainfall in August month has improved in Guar growing belt especially in rainfed guar growing belt. Guar sowing area has also increased with improved rainfall. As per latest available data, Guar sowing has completed on 27,56,000 Hectare Area. That is 89 % of the guar sowing target, this is year Rajasthan Govt has target guar sowing on 31,00,000. It is expected that rest of targeted guar sowing will complete by the end of August month.

There is full moisture in soil and environment in the August month. It is favorable for guar plant growth and biological development. If condition will remain same in September month then there will be good Guar crop. Longer cloudy period can become favorable condition for the disease and insect outbreak. Till now no attack of insect and disease has noticed in guar growing belt. This is starting of crop cultivation period. Next round of rainfall with interval of 15-20 days is very important for good crop production. 

Guar crop sowing has completed on 89% on target guar sowing area 

 Crude oil prices have plunged in trade ware between USA and China. CHINA has made decision to impose 5% terrify duty on US crude oil import. Except the fuel production, a lot of chemicals, polymers and fibre are produced from the crude oil. Crude oil is very important to run the Global economy. Plunged crude oil prices are sign of increased dispute in geopolitics, slowdown of global economy, over supply of crude oil in market.

Oil and natural gas industry is the major consumer of Indian guar gum powder. Light crude production is increasing in USA. Guar is used in light crude oil production by fracking technology. Though USA is producing 11.0 million Barrel per Day, USA is still importing heavy crude oil for its refinery. Except crude oil, Cattle feed is second largest consumer of Indian Guar as Guar meal/ Guar protein. Oil rig count gas decreased in USA. As per Backer Hudges, currently 916 Oil rigs are active in USA, this count 128 less than previous year. 

As per current market analysis of Guar, factors don’t support guar prices above the 5000 level. Expectation of normal guar crop and poor export demand, of the guar gum powder will not let the guar prices to go above 5000 level. In first quarter of current financial year (2019-2020) from April to June, 1,27,700 MT guar products has exported. During the same period of previous year ( 2018-2019) 1,35,210 MT guar products were exported.

In this week NCDEX guar seed price is INR 4305/Quintal for 20thSeptember contract. BSE guar seed price for 30th August contract is INR 4206/Quintal; NCDEX spot price is INR 4250/Quintal. NCDEX guar gum price is INR 8405/Quintal for 20thSeptember contract. NCDEX spot price is INR 8369/Quintal. In local physical markets (Mandi) guar seed prices is INR 4300/Quintal and guar gum prices is INR 8500/Quintal.

Prices of guar have declined due to poor export demand and sluggish business activities. Spot demand of Guar is low. Buyers will be targeting to buy fresh guar crop in November and December. There are only two months to come fresh crop in market. Fresh crop have good moisture and it is easy to process it. Guar gum recovery remains high in fresh crop in comparison to stored Guar of last years.

इस समाचार को हिंदी  में पढ़िए , नीचे लिंक को क्लिक करे 

ग्वार की बीजाई निर्धारित लक्ष्य के 89% क्षेत्र में पूरी हुई l

https://hindi.guargumcultivation.com/2019/08/guar-gum-sowing-rajasthan-2019-2020.html

1,27,700 MT guar products has exported in first quarter of 2019-20

1,27,700 MT guar products has exported in first quarter of 2019-20. Please view the complete YOUTUBE video for further details.

For more detail on Guar and Gaur gum. Please subscribe the YOUTUBE channel so that you can get the regular YOUTUBE video about latest update on Guar and Guar gum.

Export of guar products has declined by 5.5%.

In first quarter of current financial year Guar gum export has declined by 5.55%. There was 1,27,700 MT export of guar products from April 2019 to June 2019. During the same period in last year from there was 1,35,210 MT export of Guar products from April 2018-June 2018. Generally export of guar gum products remains low in the first quarter as it is starting of financial year. New contracts of export will be signed after first quarter in new financial year. Overall export of guar products is increasing continuously since last 4-5 years.

There is good rainfall in Guar cultivation belt in current month of “SHRAVAN”. Rainfall has covered most of irrigated Guar cultivation area. Rain fed area of Jodhpur, Jaisalmer, Nagaur, Jalore, Sirohi and Bikaner has received deficit rainfall. Right now it is too late for rainfall for sowing. As per Rajasthan govt data guar sowing has completed on 78.2% area of targeted guar sowing area. This year govt has targeted guar sowing on 31,00,000 hectare area. As on 08th August,2019 guar sowing has completed on 24,24,200 hectare area. During the same period of last year Guar sowing was completed on 28,06,000 hectare area.

Oil rig count in USA has also dropped by 123 in comparison to previous year. As per baker Hudges oil rig count data, 934 oil rigs are active in USA. This week oil rigs have declined by 8 rigs as on previous week oil rig count. Decline in oil rig count is sign of low consumption of guar gum powder in USA. Oil rigs have dropped both in USA and Canada. But there is improvement in international oil rig count.

Prices of Guar have improved during last week due to news of poor rainfall and expectation of lower guar crop production. In future prices of guar will depend on production of guar and crude oil prices. International crude oil prices are down right now due to increased inventory in USA and geopolitical conflicts. Trade war between USA and China is escalating. Both countries are opening new fronts of tradewar. Crude oil prices are very sensitive to geopolitics and global trade disputes.

In this week NCDEX guar seed price is INR 4317/Quintal for 20thAugust contract. BSE guar seed price for 30th August contract is INR 4374/Quintal; NCDEX spot price is INR 4361/Quintal. NCDEX guar gum price is INR 8639/Quintal for 20thAugust contract. BSE guar gum price for 30th August contract is INR 8781/Quintal, NCDEX spot price is INR 8715/Quintal. In local physical markets (Mandi) guar seed prices is INR 4400/Quintal and guar gum prices is INR 9000/Quintal.

इस समाचार को हिंदी  में पढ़िए , नीचे लिंक को क्लिक करे 

ग्वार उत्पादों के निर्यात में 5.5 % की कमी

https://hindi.guargumcultivation.com/2019/08/guar-gum-export-2019-2020-cultivation.html

Guar sowing has completed on 8,65,000 Hectare area in Rajasthan.

Sowing of guar has completed on 8,65,000 Hectare area in Rajasthan. Please view the complete YOUTUBE video for further details.

For more detail on Guar and Gaur gum. Please subscribe the YOUTUBE channel so that you can get the regular YOUTUBE video about latest update on Guar and Guar gum.

Guar sowing area has decreased by 40% in comparison to last year.

Govt of Rajasthan has released latest data on Kharif crop sowing till 18th July 2019. As per these data Guar sowing has completed on 865000 Hectare area, which is 27.9% of the targeted Guar sowing. Last year guar sowing was completed on 14,55,000 hectare area during the same period. This year there is 40 % drop in guar sowing area in comparison to previous year. Rajasthan is major guar producing state in India. If the sowing area in Rajasthan will drop then production of Guar will also come down. This year Agriculture department of Rajasthan has targeted Guar sowing on 31, 00,000 Hectare.

Guar growing belt is completely dry. Except few patches most of area is facing the shortage of rainfall. There is no sufficient moisture for new guar crop sowing. Existing guar crop is dying due to shortage of rain. Deficient rainfall was predicted by the international weather agencies due to Al-nino in March-April. Local metrological & weather agencies predicted that monsoon would be normal in last of May and June. Situation of rainfall is poor in whole India. This year most of rain fed crop sowing area has dropped. 

As per Vikrimi/Hindu calendar Shrawan month has started in this week. Generally Shravan and Bhadrpad are considered as month of rainfall. Hopefully situation will improve in these two months. Crop of irrigated area can be sown with ground water or other irrigation water but it is must in rain fed area, after sowing subsequent rainfall is also important for crop development. 

Demand of guar gum powder may drop due to drop in Oil rig count. As per backer huge oil rig count data, 954 oil rigs are active in USA, which is 92 rigs lesser than same period of previous year. Inventory of crude oil has increased in USA. Tension between Iran and Western countries is increasing due to capture of commercial Ships by England and Iran. If tension escalates into the war then Oil prices may boost and demand of guar gum may increase in international market. Shipping of Oil may be tight and dangerous due to further escalations. 

Prices of Guar have fallen during last week due to poor export demand and sluggish business. Though export of guar is increasing but people are linking guar with crude oil. Oil prices are plunged in geopolitics so market man sees the future of Guar gum as plunged. Uses of guar are also increasing in other industries, so demand will keep increasing continuously. 

In this week NCDEX guar seed price is INR 4302/Quintal for 20thAugust contract. BSE guar seed price for 31th July contract is INR 4304/Quintal; NCDEX spot price is INR 4350/Quintal. NCDEX guar gum price is INR 8682/Quintal for 20thAugust contract. BSE guar gum price for 31th July contract is INR 8781/Quintal, NCDEX spot price is INR 8831/Quintal. In local physical markets (Mandi) guar seed prices is INR 4400/Quintal and guar gum prices is INR 9000/Quintal.

इस समाचार को हिंदी  में पढ़िए , नीचे लिंक को क्लिक करे 

ग्वार की बीजाई पिछले वर्ष के मुकाबले 40% पिछड़ी l

https://hindi.guargumcultivation.com/2019/07/guar-gum-sowing-area-export-demand-2019-2020.html

Guar gum crop will not benefit from heavy rainfall

Rajasthan Govt has released the fresh swing data of Guar gum seed cultivation . As per these data Guar seed/ guar gum  has been cultivated on 19,26,200 Hectare till 5th August which is 53.5% of targeted area.. On the same date during, last year this figure was 34,61,000 hectares.

Market of guar seed and guar gum  is bearish due to the rainfall and expectation of increase in guar seed sowing area. In the case of Guar gum seed  it is not true. This year there is very heavy rainfall and it is bad for guar gum seed in both conditions First of all heavy rainfall is not good for guar gum seed sowing and it is also not good for standing guar gum seed crop as it will lead to excessive soil and climate moisture and further attack of disease.

Long cloudy period and heavy moisture is most favorable condition for development of microorganism responsible for disease and pest. Guar crop requires better aeration in root zone and dry climate. The result of this excessive rainfall will come after 15 days when leaves turn brown with round shape spots. It will also lead to growth of weeds. Weeds grown fast in heavy moisture and weeding of the farm will be very problematic. At this time, it is more problematic for early guar gum seed  crop. Weeds will grow very fast.

Rates of Guar has also come down and short term speculative  buyer has come out from market.  It is again best point of entry in this guar seed and guar gum contract. After 5-6 days news of damage in guar seed and guar gum will start to come. 

As per data released by Gujarat State Govt Guar has been cultivated on 1,16,700 Hectare. Which is just 30 % of Last three years’ average. Total area of Guar cultivation in increasing toward the 25,00,000 Hectare. Investors need not to worry. Total production will be very poor.  Market will face the shortage of guar seed in market. Keep away from speculative news. Guar is not a crop of heavy moisture and standing water in root zone. In some patches guar is cultivated again and again so there is a lot of microorganism in soil and they will spread in complete cluster/ farm very fast.  Market of Guar will remain volatile with weather conditions

For latest & regular update on Guar and other commodities, Please Visit www.commoditiescontrol.com and subscribe your favorite package at affordable prices