Prices of Guar Seed and Guar Gum will remain stable in 2024.

After the harvesting of the guar crop, guar seed and guar gum prices aren't moving upwards. Although the market was bullish on guar seed and guar gum prices earlier due to information about lower production and higher demand, guar prices are now stagnating. Farmers, traders, manufacturers, and exporters are all waiting for a price rise for reasonable profit. There can be various factors behind the price movement. According to export data, exports are increasing. As for supply, there is no shortage of guar seed in the market, and production data for guar seed are also positive, showing no decline in production.

Export of Guar Gum

Guar is a major exportable agricultural commodity from India. Guar gum exports directly impact guar seed and guar gum prices. According to data released by the Central Agriculture Ministry, guar gum exports are increasing in the year 2023-24. From April 2023 to October 2023, there has been a 30% increase in export quantity and a 65% increase in export value in USD. These data are available up to October-2023 only. One new data will be released then the new data will be analyzed later on.

S.N.	Month	Quantity ( MT)	Value (USD Million )
1	April-2023	30184	35.14
2	May-2023	35141	40.17
3	June-2023	33744	39.49
4	July-2023	39405	45.50
5	August-2023	42308	51.34
6	September-2023	35528	47.42
7	October-2023	39761	58.02

Export of guar gum from  India 2023 - 2024

Crude oil Prices

According to market reports crude oil prices are falling continuously. Due to storage US storage build the prices have settled 1% lower than previous close. The crude oil inventory has increased in USA. Currently Brent crude oil is being traded around USD 76.80 /Barrel. WTI crude oil is being traded around USD 71.37/Barrel. There are also news that Saudi Arabia will cut the oil prices to its buyers from all regions. Global supply of the crude oil is increasing from USA. Supply of crude oil is smooth in Global market.  Even attacks on Oil shipping tankers by the Houthi “The Yemeni Houthi terrorists” could not interrupt the supply of the crude oil.  Due to falling prices India is also increasing its oil reserves by importing the cheaper crude oil.

 Prices of Guar Seed and Guar Gum will remain stable in 2024.

Oil Rig Count

Baker Hughes rig count data are also indicating that demand of crude oil is lower. The active oil rigs are lower than previous year. As per the oil rig count data released by Backer Hughes number of active rigs have increased increasing internationally, but in USA the oil rigs are lower than previous year.  In comparison to last year Internationally 955 rigs are active which 55 rigs are, more than the previous active year. In United stated there are 621 rigs active which are 151 rigs lesser than the previous year’s rigs count. There is decline in total active rig count in USA, Canada and Internationally. The Oil and Natural oil gas industry is major demand creator for the Guar gum in international market. 

Global Politics

Many wars are going on internationally but most are confined to specific geographical location. Severity of the wars is very low. There are no escalations on other areas. Israel – Hamas war is about to end very soon. Yemani Houthi terrorist were also supposed to jump in Israel – Hamas war but they limited to attack on nearby coastal area. Russia Ukraine war is also going on slow pace. There are possibilities that US will very soon attack Houthi controlled Yemen to secure the international Trade. Russia - Ukraine war has entered in 686 days. The intensity of war has decreased. No major escalation of war has noticed. 

Parliament Election in India 

Assembly elections were held last year in India in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana. New Governments have formed in these states. Rajasthan is a guar growing state; the new govt will likely impact the guar business in Rajasthan. National parliament elections at central level are pending. These elections will be held in April and May Month. After that new trade policies will be formed and investment will move. Guar Industry requires a lot of investment especially in R&D and processing .

Supply of guar 

Harvesting has completed up to last month so no major arrival is remaining for this year. Now new arrival will come in next season. There is no supply shortage. The market and traders are also not in buying drive. Farmers are carrying their produce to market as per their financial requirements. Prices will not be bullish. The current level will sustain until new demand from oil and natural gas industry doesn’t rise. Entire Kharif crop production is lower due to poor climatic conditions, so Indian agriculture production will remain under pressure of importing of agriculture food / commodities. For Guar prices will remain stable no need to buying the stock or hold for short term gain.

In this week of January, NCDEX guar seed price is being traded at INR 5396, 5460, 5511 / 100 Kg (Quintal) for 19th Jan 2024, 20 Feb 2024 and 20thMarch 2024 contracts. NCDEX guar seed spot price is INR 5405/Quintal. NCDEX guar gum price is being traded INR 10448, 10625, 10766 / 100 Kg (Quintal) for 19th Jan 2024, 20 Feb 2024 and 20thMarch 2024 contracts. NCDEX guar gum spot price is INR 10645/Quintal. In local physical markets (Mandi) guar seed prices is INR 5200/Quintal and guar gum prices is INR 10500/Quintal.

Guar Seed supply will remain tight due to lower production

As per export data released by the “Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority”(APEDA) for the period of April-2019 to August-2019, guar gum export has declined by 18.28% or 40,648 MT, from 2,22,454 MT in year 2018 to 181806 in current year 2019 for the same period. Declining export of guar gum year by year is concern for guar growing farmers and whole guar gum industry. Guar gum is a unique agriculture product which can be used for different purpose due to its physical and chemical property. 

Major portion of guar gum is exported for oil and natural gas industry. Currently oil and natural gas industry is stagnate. Oil prices are stable due to over production by OPEC countries, which is sufficient for the global demand. Crude oil is being traded around USD 64.27 /Barrel. High dependency on oil and natural gas industry is not is favour for Indian guar gum industry. There is requirement of regular research and development to increase the consumption of Guar gum in food industry and other industries. 

Guar Seed supply will remain tight due to lower production

Oil rig count is decreasing in USA. As per Baker Hudges oil rig count currently 803 oil rig are active in USA which is lower by 276 then previous year oil rig count during same period. Declining oil rig count and drilling activities is not a positive news fro the indian guar gum industry. Global demand of crude oil will boost the oil prices and that will lead to increase in new oil drilling activities in USA. Gulf countries are covering their trade deficit by increasing the crude oil production. Increasing crude oil production by gulf countries is keeping pressure on crude oil prices. 

Due to poor performance of guar commodity in previous years, farmers are making distance from Guar cultivation. This year Guar crop was cultivated on 30,87,789 Hectare area. As per advance estimate by Rajasthan Govt guar production is expected to remain around 10,31,427 MT in Rajasthan for Kharif-2019. 2,00,000 MT guar seed production is expected from other guar growing states. This year rainfall was not distributed properly in whole guar growing belt. Farmers preferred Bajra crop over Guar crop due to better performance of Bajra crop. 

There are no any major chances of price rise in near future due to declining demand of guar gum powder, but prices may boost due to tight supply as production of guar seed is limited. Cultivation area is also shrinking. Farmers can hold 70% production for next 3-4 months. 

In this week NCDEX guar seed price is INR 4135/Quintal for 20th December contract. BSE Guar seed price for 20th December contract is INR 4093 /Quintal. NCDEX spot price is INR 4075/Quintal. NCDEX guar gum price is INR 7510/Quintal for 20th December contract. NCDEX spot price is INR 7565/Quintal. In local physical markets (Mandi) guar seed prices is INR 4300/Quintal and guar gum prices is INR 7600/Quintal.