Guar and Guar gum prices movement.

Last month (January-18) was very good for Guar and Guar gum. Guar seed and Guar gum got good support from increasing crude oil prices. Prices of guar seeds reached up to 4700/100Kg. During the first week of February prices of guar seeds crashed with falling crude oil prices. It has reached to 4505/!00Kg. There is around 5 % fall within the week. Exporters, Traders, and farmers are worried about this downward movement. If prices reached from 3500 to 4500 it is ok, but if prices decrease from 4700 and reached to 4500 defiantly it makes worries to anyone. 

What does falling crude oil means? 

People are trying to put Guar and crude in the same track. It not always true. When the prices of crude oil were increasing then there was demand. New oil drilling started with increasing crude oil prices. Guar was used in that activities result of the same in front of us. Inventory of crude oil has increased. That’s why prices of crude oil are down. Here it is clear that there is the demand that’s why oil drilling companies have increased the production. Crude oil prices are down due to increased shale oil production. There is no role of OPEC. OPEC has agreed to cut down its production till march and at next level negotiation OPEC want oil cut extended up to end of 2018. If prices of crude fall, then it is an indication that Guar gum is being used in shale oil production. It not an issue of concern. 

How will MSP of Kharif pulses impact Guar? 

This was the last budget prepared by current BJP Govt. BJP will have to face election in March 2019. Before election BJP will give some financial benefit to farmers. MSP is one of the best ways to assist farmers financially. Rabi season is going on. It is not taken widely through our country but Kharif or summer season crop is taken throughout the country. Govt will declare increased MSP of Kharif pulses. In Guar growing belt Moong moth are major Kharif pulses. If the MSP of Moong is kept around 6000/100Kg and Guar prices will remain below 5000 then farmers will not go for Guar cultivation. There are maximum possibilities that govt will announce good bonus on Kharif pulses. If the sowing of Guar will remain lower, then prices will increase before the arrival of next crop in November-2018.

Guar, Guar Gum, Guar gum farming in India

Last year stock. 

As per marketman, last year stock is around 80,00,000 Bags. This much of quantity always remain in the market. This year production figure is also same which is around 80,00,000 Bags. Like previous year quantity, Stock of Guar always remains with farmers, stockist, and millers. The current arrival of guar seeds is around 17000 bags per day. But 70 % material is coming from last year stock, this year crop produce is laying with stockist, traders or big farmers. It will not come till next crop arrival even if the prices reach to 6000. This year material has reached in warehouse sat initial stage at a lower price around 3300/10kkg. This stock will not come out even the prices crushed downside below 4000. 

Export of Guar gum

Export of Guar gum is around 40 % higher than the previous year up to December 2017. It is expected to remain higher during rest of year in comparison to last year. Export of Guar has also high in January month actual data will come in March month. As per exporters, there was good export during January month January. 

Monsoon predictions in May-June 

IF the early prediction of monsoon remains poor then prices of Guar will increase. If it remains normal and good, then prices of that time will keep going. As per primary inputs monsoon is expected to remain poor. The arrival of first rainfall in May June will be also a crucial factor. Farmers need not worry. Over prices of Guar has gone up in this season. It is poor supply period peak arrival period from farmers has already gone. 

Oil rigs are increasing: 

As per industry experts, oil rigs are increasing continuously in the USA. It is very positive news for Indian Guar gum industry. The demand of Guar gum powder will increase. 

Farmers or traders must keep in mind that this year production is lower than the previous year. The demand of Guar gum is also very high. Export of Guar gum is also higher than previous years. Prices of Guar and Guar gum is also increasing. The new crop will come after 8 Month up that time existing stock will be used. MSP of Kharif pulses is expected to remain high. Crude oil prices are going down due to the production of Shale crude oil. Guar sowing area will come down due to higher MSP of Kharif pulses. Oil rigs are increasing in the USA. Most of the factors are positive for future growth of Guar and Guar gum price. As per Energy Information Administration (EIA) Currently USA, crude oil production is around 10.25 Barrel per day. It is expected to rise by 11.2 Million Barrel per by the next year. This year Guar arrival as started at Rs 3300/Kg. Generally, 2Nd and 3Rd week remain under pressure. Price will not always move in one direction only. The physical market is strong due to stock at lower level and market fundamentals are also strong behind guar price.

ग्वार और ग्वार गम की कीमतों में वायदा बाज़ार में तेज़ी स्थानीय बाज़ार में स्थिरता ।

नीचे के स्तर पर खरीददारी से वायदा बाज़ार में ग्वार और ग्वार गम की कीमतें में सुधार हो रहा है । स्थानीय बाजारों में ग्वार और ग्वार गम की कीमतें स्थिर बनी हुयी है। हाज़िर की खरीददारी से ग्वार और ग्वार गम स्थानीय बाज़ारों में कीमतें मजबूत बनी हुई है। इस महीने के शुरुवात में कच्चे तेल की कीमतों में गिरावट के कारण ग्वार और ग्वार गम की कीमतों में गिरावट देखी गयी, लेकिन ये गिरावट वायदा बाज़ार में थी । हाज़िर बाज़ार में ग्वार और ग्वार गम बहुत मजबूत बने हुये है। ग्वार की नई उपज की बाज़ार में आवक का मुख्य समय निकल चूका है। अभी का समय तो ग्वार और ग्वार गम खपत और खरीददारी का बचा है । उधर ग्वार चुरी ग्वार कोरमा की कीमतों में भी मजबूती बनी हुई है। चुरी कोरमा ग्वार और ग्वार गम उद्योग के मुख्य सहारे के रूप में उभरा है ।

ग्वार की आवक लगभग 15,000 - 16,000 बैग प्रति दिन है। ग्वार की आवक बाज़ार में धीरे - धीरे कम हो रही है । कच्चा तेल अभी कुछ समय के लिए थोडा कमजोर है। अंतरराष्ट्रीय संस्थाओं के मुताबिक कच्चे तेल के भाव अगले 6 महीने में 80 डॉलर प्रति बैरल तक बढ़ेंगे । आने वाले मानसून के पूर्वानुमान से ग्वार व ग्वार गम की कीमतों पर प्रभाव पड़ेगा । अगर खरीफ की अन्य फसलों की MSP ( मिनिमम सपोर्ट प्राइस) ग्वार से अच्छी रहती है तो ग्वार की बीजाई कम होगी ।

अच्छी गुणवत्ता वाले ग्वार बीज का भाव 4650 रुपये प्रति क्विंटल है । औसत गुणवत्ता वाले ग्वार बीज का भाव 4500 रुपये प्रति क्विंटल है। मानक गुणवत्ता वाले ग्वार गम का भाव 10300 रुपये प्रति क्विंटल पर होता है । अंदरूनी इलाकों में ग्वार का भाव 4300 रुपये प्रति क्विंटल तक मिल रहा रहा है । हाज़िर बाज़ार के साथ में वायदा बाजार में ग्वार के भावों में तेज़ी है। एनसीडीईएक्स (नेशनल कमोडिटी एंड डेरिवेटिव्स एक्सचेंज लिमिटेड) में ग्वार बीज -10 एमटी के सौदे का कारोबार क्रमशः फरवरी, मार्च और अप्रैल माह के लिए 0.83 फीसदी या रूपये 37/100 किलो, 0.77 फीसदी या रुपये 35/100 किलो, 0.58 फीसदी या 26.5 रुपये तेज़ी के साथ 4508, 4559, 4611 रुपये प्रति क्विंटल के भाव पर 69990, 159270, 17620 खड़े सौदों के साथ किया जा रहा है।

ग्वार ग्वार गम की खेती , ग्वार गम की फार्मिंग 

वायदा बाज़ार में ग्वार गम का कारोबार मजबूती से हो रहा है। एनसीडीईएक्स (नेशनल कमोडिटी एंड डेरिवेटिव्स एक्सचेंज लिमिटेड) में ग्वार गम 5 एमटी के सौदे का कारोबार फरवरी, मार्च और अप्रैल के लिए 0.85 प्रतिशत या 84 रुपये /100 किलो, 0.91 प्रतिशत या रुपये 92/100 किलोग्राम, 0.83 प्रतिशत या रुपये 85/100 तेज़ी के साथ 10015, 10154, 10285 रुपये प्रति क्विंटल के भाव पर, 9225, 68955, 1865 खड़े सौदों के लिए किया जा रहा है ।

Guar seed and guar gum price are in upward trend with strong fundamental.

This week was very strong and highly volatile for guar price and guar gum price. Guar and guar gum prices touched highest point of its last three-year trading. Complete gain in prices were washed during last two days of week due to speculations  and falling NCDEX guar guar gum price. Fundamentally guar was strong this year from supply side due to poor supply predictions. This year rainfall fall pattern was very poor. Most of guar seed production comes from rainfed agriculture, this year guar cultivation area under irrigated conditions was very low. Over all this year production of guar was estimated lower than previous years. As per market men, estimated production of guar seed for the year 2017-2018 was around 70,00,000-75,00,000 bags of 100 Kg each. Arrival was regular and there was no any major information on increase in demand of guar gum.  During the arrival of new crop in month of October, November and December, prices were stable and these were not moving upward due to peak arrival. 

But at starting of January, some data started to circulate in market, released by APEDA and other govt agency, that guar gum export has increased by 42 % during current budget year in comparison to previous year for same period of April- November. This year there was export of 3,21,570 MT of Guar gum during the last year in same period export was 2,26,431 MT.  Market got some support from these figures.

During this arrival period, crude oil prices were moving upward, somewhere this was a sign of increase in demand of guar gum in future.  Crude oil prices are another strong fundamental behind increasing guar gum prices.  A after production estimates crude oil prices works as major catalyst for guar and guar gum prices. During arrival period crude oil prices were moving upward slowly but it was not moving far away from level of US 50/barrel.  With tight geopolitics and cut down of crude oil production by OPEC countries, prices started to move upward. Guar gum prices were not getting enough support from these slow growing guar prices. 

When crude oil price started to move toward the level of USD 70/barrel in international market it started to draw attention of US administration. At the end of last week, a hot news emerged from USA that USA will open its all off shore drilling facilities. It was hot news for guar gum industry as oil and natural gas industry will require drilling chemical with new drilling facilities. Guar gum is an important drilling chemical. Stocks of oil drilling companies have improved in USA. During last one month US oil and natural gas industry is attracting investment. 

With news of opening of new offshore drilling facility Guar prices and guar prices started to move upward Guar seed touched the level of Rs 4400/100 Kg in local markets. Guar gum touched to the level of Rs 9600/100Kg. At the same time speculators became active in market under selling pressure prices of guar gum fell around Rs 500/100Kg one time it touched the level of Rs 9200/100Kg but by Friday evening it got recovery in physical market. Gar seed prices strong and stable in this pressure and it did not fell in physical market as arrival of commodity dropped in market. Guar gum prices remained down ward continuously for two days. 

There was one more factor which was giving fundamental support to guar prices; that was extreme cold wave in north glob. There is huge requirement of natural gas and heating oil to keep these country warm and working.

With strong fundamentals farmer and traders are confident for guar. Holding of guar has started in market. It is expected that in coming days arrival of guar gum will also drop in local market.  Prices of guar would get boost from poor supply. At lower side Guar Churi korma is very strong, it is being traded at Rs 2700/ 100 Kg there is regular export demand of roasted Churi korma. All fundamental are positive and not reversible at this time as new arrival of guar will come in October-2018. Up to next arrival of monsoon prices of guar will keep improving slowly and slowly don’t expect a one or two day straight peak. Generally these type of price rises are highly speculative and unstable. Framer should sell out stock slowly and slowly as per their requirement.

There is only fact which put pressure on guar, that is as future decision of OPEC to increase to crude oil production to keep the investment away from USA oil and natural gas industry.