Expectation of normal guar seed crop production in 2014-2015 and Guar Seed & Guar Gum Prices in 2014-2015

Expectation of Normal crop

Recovery in Monsoon will lead to a normal guar seed crop in year 2014-2015  as  per current climatic condition. Rain fall is good in Guar growing belt. Early sown crop will be befit from it and  will recover from drought condition. New crop will start to come in market after mid of October. Delay in monsoon has increased Guar sowing in irrigated area. Irrigated area work as a insurance of good production for Guar Crop. At other side late rainfall  increased the late sowing in  rainfed area of Chrur, Hanumangarh, Ganganagar, Bikaner, Jodhpur, Nagor and Jaisalmer. 

Initial delay in monsoon weakened the guar seed crop production.but it improved significantly. Shadow of poor monsoon will effect the production of  guar seed but it will not effect the business of guar seed and guar gum. If monsoon keeps going as it is right now , then it is expected that in this year 2014-2015 , there will be production of 18,00,000 MT  (18 Millions Bags of 100 Kg. each) ) of Guar seed.  Though this production is not sufficient to cover the  expected  total demand of year 2014-2015 but  carry forward stock of last year will make it surplus amount to fall in the price of guar seed and guar gum in year remaining period of  year 2014-2015 .

Low Fracking activities in Winter Period and Guar Seed & Guar Gum Prices in 2014-2015

Low Fracking activities in Winter Period 

Winter time will start after two months. In the winter month the new fracking activities will come down. because oil and gas  company will start to work on production of Gas as the energy requirement will be increased in most of developed countries. Halt is fracking activity will not lead to any major new contract or demand of guar gum . Existing contract of guar will keep going. Mostly frackign activity is completed during the summer period. Low frackign activity will keep pressure during the remaining period of 2014-2015 up to march. In the next 6-8 months the demand of guar guar seed and guar gum will come down.

Improvement in Manson and Guar Seed & Guar Gum Prices in 2014-2015

Last month it was seen decline in price of guar seed and guar gum.  Condition will be remain under pressure up to next six months. The use of guar gum and its derivatives will come down in next six months. 

The improvement in the mansoon is major factor to keep the prices under control up to next 6-8 months.  Fear of poor monsoon has gone away from the mood of farmer, trader and the processor. The improved Monsoon will support farmer as it will keep his farm expenses lower. The arrival of other commodities will also increase the  business of trader and processor, The profit from other commodities will keep liquidity  in the market and there will be money in the hand of farmer, So there will be no major pressure of liquidity  on single  Guar seed commodity o. In this improved monsoon condition it is expected that  prices of Guar seed will be remain under pressure. Guar seed prices can come in the bracket of 3500-4500 in year 2014 - 2015. 

Sanctions on Russia by western world and Guar Seed & Guar Gum Prices in 2014-2015

Sanctions on Russia by western world 

Sanctions on Russia will also keep pressure on Russia to lower the prices of Natural Gas.  Low natural gas prices will keep pressure on  International Energy prices. This effect will further transmitted to guar gum and guar seed prices. It was expected that fracking activities was suppose to increase in Russia , but the technology is laying with American Companies and sanctions will keep them away from Russia. A huge quantity was suppose to be used in Russian oil field by american companies. Now there is no chances of further progress in this issue in coming next 12-18 months. Guar seed and guar gum prices will be under pressure due to these sanctions on Russia.

Civil war is in Middle east, in Syria, Libya Lebanan, and Iraq and Guar Seed & Guar Gum Prices in 2014-2015

Civil war is in Middle east,  in Syria, Libya and Iraq :-

The civil war condition will keep in position of uncertainty to investors.So there will be no major investment in Syria, Iraq and Libya. Civil war condition will also keep pressure on these groups to sell more and more crude oil to earn money. All other source of employment has been crashed. Oil will be only exchangeable commodity for these fighting groups. Low rate of crude oil in international market will prohibit new investment in oil and natural gas sector.Means there will be no requirement of guar gum powder for new exploration. Current political crises in these countries will keep pressure on Guar seed and Guar Gum prices.

Advance estimate of Guar gum ( Guar seed) Crop production - Year 2014-2015 in Rajasthan is negative in comparison to last year.

As per advance estimate data of Guar gum ( Guar seed)  Crop production -  for year year 2014-2015 released by state government is totally negative and it show that there will be sharp decline in the guar production.

GUAR CULTIVATION AREA, PRODUCTION,  AND YIELD OF LAST FOUR YEAR- RAJASTHAN

S.N.              Year                  Area (Hectare)             Production (MT)              Yield (Kg/Hectare)

1                  2011-12                3'095'869                          1'847'713                                  597

2                  2012-13                4'526'368                         2'023'096                                447

3                  2013-14                5'071'099                         2'863'055                                 565

4                  2014-15                3'212'965                         1'339'806                                 417

                (* data of 2014-15 is on this basis of estimate Sourced from State Govt.)

All three factors Cultivation area, Production and productivity (Yield) of this year are lowest in last four year. These data are for Rajasthan State Only.

( CROP WISE ADVANCE ESTIMATE OF AREA, PRODUCTION AND YIELD - 2014-2015 

( Guar data  in red highlighted row ) 

In initial estimate of sowing area were showing positive pattern.  But first estimate of production is negative. There is 53 % drop in production as compare to last year. There is 36 % drop in cultivation area as compare to last year. There is 26 % fall in yield or productivity.

( LAST YEAR AREA, PRODUCTION AND YIELD OF DIFFERENT CROP-2013-2014 ) 

                                                                   ( Guar data  in red highlighted row ) 

Last Two year there was good sowing and bumper crop due to favourable climatic condition from first rainfall to maturity.  If we compare these data with 2011-12 then situation is normal. Year 2011-12 was normal in context to Guar production.

The final picture will come after harvesting and commodity arrival in market but initial picture is not good.

Final condition of guar seed ( Guar Gum ) crop after return of manson

Manson is over from most of guar growing belt.  There are minimum chances of any major rainfall. Guar gum ( seed ) crop conditions are clear now. In this year production will be normal there is no any news of major crop damage. In Haryana there can be some damage due to excessive rainfall, but that will be in the limit of 10%. Overall Haryana produce 20-22 % of total Indian guar production so the 0 % variation will be not more than 2 - 2.2 % of total production.

Some people can compare this year (14-15) production with last year year (13-14) production. Last year production was bumper in timely rainfall condition.  This year production of gaur will be above the normal.

There were drought conditions initially.  Sowing started very late.  This drought condition gave an option to farmers to grow guar instead of other water intensive crop like cotton, paddy in irrigated area of Haryana, Ganganagar, Hanumangarh and Bikaner.   In rain fed  area situation was in the same direction , farmers of Rain fed area  preferred Guar crop over the other crop like Bajara ( pear millet) , Moong (Green Gram) Moth .It is  

The late rainfall was sufficient for sowing. After sowing there was a long dry period, which was very critical condition but it saved guar crop from any disease and pest attack. In mid of cropping season rainfall was very low but it was on regular interval as per required. In this condition vegetative growth of plant didn’t effected too much.

 

Last rainfall was also normal.  It was heavy in some part especially in Haryana. In cotton growing area, due to heavy rainfall and regular irrigation there was condition of water logging and disease outbreak. But due to short rain fall period, it improved very fast.  There is news of minor damage against the fear of heavy damage. Guar crop affected least in adverse climatic conditions. Early sowing crop will be ready to harvest if weather conditions are clear with high temperature, the crop may mature within 10-15- days.

Late sowing crop way take time.  it may mature around last week of October especially in rain fed area. Crop is in good condition. Now there is no requirement of water or rainfall. Crop need clear weather and bit high temperature to mature timely.

Guar seed ( guar gum ) cultivation in india : Re-activation of Monsoon in Rajasthan specially in western Rajasthan

Since last four five days monsoon has activated in Rajasthan, It is equally distributed through out Rajasthan, specially in western  Rajasthan. Western Rajasthan is major guar growing belt. This rainfall is very important for flowering initiation. There was a sufficient gap between first Manson rainfall and this rainfall. The bigger gap will save the crop from attack of disease and pest. Second rainfall is very important, every thing has been changed. Now plant will bear more flowers and pods. 

This year I am expecting 10-15% increase in production as compare to last year. Cultivation area has also increased this year. There is 100 % chances of bumper crop. The climatic condition were totally in favor of crop. Due to rainfall temperature has gone down so there is less chances of nay major disease out break. Yesterday I visited one farm it was in very good condition.

Guar seed ( Guar Gum Cultivation in India)

 The rate of guar is also stabilizing slowly and slowly . Investors are advised to keep away from speculative information and blind trading. Rate of guar seed will touch the level of INR 3750- INR 4000/ 100 Kg. Central Govt is preforming well, that will lead to price stability and new investment in guar gum industry.  

Guar seed ( Guar Gum Cultivation in India)