How long Guar seed and Guar gum will remain stable in market ?

In local market guar remained stable after a regular bullish trend.  In future market dropping crude oil gave a halt to rising prices to guar prices in spot and forward market. As per earlier prediction crude was suppose to go upward. Traders and exporters consider crude an important factor for demand of guar gum.

Crude is based of energy industry. Any type of movement will put an impact to input products. Guar is considered as demand driven input. After harvesting of guar crop, supply side figure balance at a level.

From July to December Guar behave as supply driven product and form January to June Guar behave as demand driven product. Guar will remain as a weak commodity up to June. After June it may behave as strong commodity with the negative data of rainfall.

During current period impact of crude prices will be seen clearly on guar prices. Any further demand of guar Korma and Churi may also affect price of gaur.

Unexpected price fall of crude oil may push guar seed prices below 3000 and guar gum prices below 7500 at current level of oil prices guar seed and guar gum will remain below 3500 and 8500 at the time of March contract realization. If crude prices drop further then it may drop below the level of 2500 and 7500.

Guar is low investment / cost of cultivation crop. Guar gum seed cultivation is still profitable at the Rate of Rs 3000

Guar seed and guar gum strengthened in local market. Guar Gum improved Rs 300 and Guar seed 150. Guar is going through a lot of speculation and instability but in a long term prospective it is moving down side since arrival of new crop. Comparatively guar is still a profitable crop for farmers and processors. If we compare it will other crop of the guar growing region we will find that guar is low investment / cost of cultivation crop.

Due to mismatch is demand and supply it is facing high volatility in this commodity. Since four year it is regularly going down and down. Still guar is looking a neutral stability point. Before father hike and drop guar will stable at that point for 4-5 months. For guar Rs 3000 is neutral point where guar will stable in coming time.

Guar gum cultivation in India  ( Guar Gum Farming ) 

Mean while guar will face a liquidity position in March and April. Might be a group of trader can try to speculate it toward upper side so that they can get more fund for their stock. 

In processing point of view guar need a stable point so that fresh investment can be done toward technology up gradation side and Research side. Right now guar is facing a crisis of investment. It is clear that in coming time guar industry will be more professionalize and organize.

In international prospective Demand of guar will come down during next quarter. Winter will be ended in next month so demand of energy will also come down. Existing rigs will minimise their production. Demand of Natural Gas and crude will also come down during defiantly it will tighten the availability of fund for guar.

How much Guar gum and Guar seed can fall, at lower level

Guar improved in local market due with improvement in future market.  Even after improvement there is no any major impact on guar seed arrival in market. Guar Gum and guar seed both are slightly improving during this week.

As per export data released, in this year there is huge decline in income from export of guar. This year there is decline in guar gum export in quantity wise and price wise. Some long term commodity experts see further down fall before March contract.  Mr. Praveen Gupta from Nagaur see that current price rise is only a speculative rise. This is not original one. He predicts that once Guar will reach between the level of 2500-3000, then after guar will stable. Same time he also predict a level of 7000 for guar gum split.

Guar seed and Guar Gum cultivation India- Harvested  Guar crop ready to threshing 

Current year production data and export data and demand forecast does not support price rise. Local trading is very low. For this year guar will not improve even after demand due to over production. Stack holder of guar industry are already in huge loss. Right now only genuine players are surviving in market.

Crude is improving but it will take time for new investment. Oil and natural gas industry, doesn't not attract any major investment in current international political scenario.

Guar churi and Guar Korma is giving support for Stabilization of Guar seed prices

Guar seed and guar rate remained stabled in spot market after two days rally in Jodhpur market. Some fresh buying has reported in spot market due to rise in price of crude oil. Future market gained in morning but in afternoon it started to goes down. In morning hour guar seed and guar gum opened strong but as per last trading Guar gum has lose 50 Rs/100 Kg and guar gum seed Rs 30/100 Kg in Jodhpur market. In other market it remained stable.

 There is daily arrival of 20,000 Bags of guar seed 100 kg each from farmers. This much of supply will keep going. Manufacturers are waiting for fresh orders from US. Speculators and Stockist are also active in market.

Guar is being traded at Rs 4200 as a mean price in most of spot market. Traders are highly demoralized due to low rate. There is neck to neck competition.  Currently margins are very less in guar business.

Oil and natural gas industry consume more than 70 % of guar. Demand from this sector is back bone for this industry. Demand from Food industry is not showing any major demand at low guar gum price.

Demand of Guar Churi  is as usual in market. It may come down with price rise of guar split. In the case of guar gum price rise, production of Guar Churi will increase and supply will increase in market. 

Guar seed and Guar gum market after local election In Rajasthan

Guar is showing price rise continuously second day. Today’s rise is more than yesterday. Today guar gum has emerged stronger than guar seed. Guar gum is following the price rise of Crude oil.

Local Panchayat election has completed in Rajasthan. There was low business activity during winter and election time but now the business activity is increasing and demand has increased for short time.

Spot market is giving strong base to the future prices. As per export data there is no any major down fall in export of guar gum products in comparison to last year.

Manual Harvesting of Guar ( Guar seed ) Gum crop.

Manufacturer / traders / exporters are hopeful for price rise because in current time there are three basic fundamental which are strong. Number one: Price rise of Crude Oil, Second: guar supply time if moving toward off time and third: strong demand of by-product ( guar churi ). After one month Guar seed supply from farmer will almost stop due to arrival of new crop.

In physical market, supply of gaur seed is slow as per regular trend in this time.

MD of one of major Guar gum producer looks the downfall. He expects that guar may touch 3500 and Guar gum 7500 if the demand from O&N industry doesn't rise.

Guar Churi ( Guar meal ) is also giving strong support to guar ( guar gum ) seed

Guar seed has shown bit price rise.  There is more price in guar seed than Guar gum. It was the impact of rise in crude oil prices in last week that was around 9 % which was highest in a day during last six year.

There was more rises in Guar seed in comparison to Guar gum.  It was just because of Guar available in physical market.  Guar churi is also giving strong support to guar seed. demand of animal feed protein is increasing in world.

Guar Churi ( Guar meal)  used as Animal Protein. by product of guar ( guar seed ) gum  processing industry.

As per expert the impact of crude price on guar seed / gum is short term in long term impact crude must be more than 75 USD/ Barrel.

Todays price rise is also an impact of adjustment from physical market impact on future price downfall.

Physical availability of guar split is making guar seed stronger than guar gum. Manufacturers are adjusting guar gum split low price with guar churi price rise.

Physical arrival of guar seed will also stop after March as new crop will come in market and physical commodity market will engage in new crop. APRIL to OCTOBER period will be a low arrival period. Supply will become tight in that period.