Wednesday, 8 November 2017

Will guar seed ( Guar gum ) give good return this year 2017-2018 ?

During last three years Guar was under pressure of major factors like over production, Poor demand and poor crude oil prices. As commodity Guar gave a good return during last year. Last year arrival prices weer around 3200/ 100 Kg and it went up to 4200/100 Kg . During last year there was around 30 % hike in prices. This year it is expected that Guar will give good return.

( a) Low Cultivation Area ; This year total guar cultivation area was around 36,00,000 Hectare. Most of area was from rainfed area. Where productivity remains around 200 Kg per hectare or lower. As per inputs from different sources Total production of guar is expected to around 70,00,000-72,00,000 Bags.Crop was poor in comparison to last years. 



(b) Poor crop.  : This year climatic condition for guar cultivation was poor. Rainfall distribution was not equal . Most of cultivation area was under rain fed condition. In earlier some are was under irrigated conditions so production was not so bad in those area. Weight of seed is also poor. It will impact the recovery of guar split from guar seed.

(c) Improving crude oil prices : Crude oil  prices is major fundamental factor toward the demand side. if prices of crude oil goes up then it will impact new oil drilling activities in USA and Other new countries. It is expected that demand of Guar gum will increase with improving crude oil prices. It is moving toward USD 70 per Barrel.

All the factors are positive for guar commodity. Comparatively Guar will give good return in comparison to other kharif commodities.

Wednesday, 23 August 2017

Guar seed/ guar gum is in upward trend

August month is very positive for guar seed. It has crossed the level of 4000. 4000 is major psychological level. Prices will remain around 4000 in next week. There will be some selling pressure in physical market. Investors who have purchased guar at level 2900-3000 will try to move out from guar contract at 4000 level with 30 % return. Level of of 4000 is a decision-making point for investors. We will see a regular up and down between 4000-4500 level.




Once Guar will cross the level 4500 then buying will start in it. As per fundamental reports guar crop is not good in many areas. It is damaged in flood. It is facing drought in major guar cultivation belt. Crude oil is also stable above USD 50/Barrel. OPEC has cut down  production to control the prices. Supply of oil is also tight in USA. Recovery has noticed in oil prices. As per industry report oil and natural industry is again showing interest in guar gum instead of other artificial replacement.

Mostly future market trading governs Guar trade. Current contract in future market will come in realization in mid of October. There is time of two months in realization of contract. At this time investors will be not in hurry in exit. Once prices will stable above 4000 for 5-6 days then strong buying will be noticed and prices will start move toward 4500/100 Kg.


Guar gum has crossed the level of 8400. With recovery in export demand guar gum is moving toward the level of INR 9000/100 Kg. Sowing of Guar seed has almost completed. Final figures of sowing will be come out by the end of August month. Speculators are active in market. Speculators are ultimate risk taker in market. As per market information upward trend will be continue. There is demand in physical market and arrival of guar is very poor in rainy season. Supply will be remain tight with increasing prices.

Saturday, 12 August 2017

How long Guar seed and Guar Gum will perform well ?

Guar has performed very well in Month of August. It has recovered more than 20%. This recovery is still going on.  In August and September there will be no settlement in Guar contracts. Next settlement will be in October.  There will be no settlement pressure up to next two months. Investors are making positions due to news of poor crop and uneven rainfall. Crop has damaged in some area due to heavy rainfall/ flood. In Some area, it is being damaged due to poor rainfall. 

Cultivation area is already low due to poor performance e of commodity in last years. Farmers of irrigated belts has switched to cotton specially in Punjab, Haryana and Ganganagar belt.   Kharif pulses are replacing in rainfed area. Increasing prices can attract guar in reaming sowing time.  Crop condition is poor in traditional guar growing belt.


Increased figure of current year export of Guar gum is a positive factor for investment in Guar.  115 % growth is noticed in export of guar in first quarter of current financial year in comparison to same quarter of last financial year. Speculators are also positive about Guar now.  By the next week guar will cross the level of 4000/100Kg. New crop will arrive by the end of October. Recovery in guar will continue up to October with current climatic and market condition. 

Production of seed is also expected to remain poor quality this year. In that case guar gum recovery will be low from guar seed. Consumption of guar seed is also expected to increase. Once it will cross the level of 4000 then there will be some selling pressure. Once it will cross 4500 level then selling pressure will come down and buying will start it will move toward 5000 level.  Climatic condition and cultivation condition are very crucial for guar in next two months.

Wednesday, 2 August 2017

Can current positive signs lead to recovery in guar Industry?

Guar industry is under heavy pressure of poor demand and over supply during last two years. This year crop has not given any significant return to farmers, investors, traders, and exporters. During last week some positive news are coming for guar industry.

There is significant increase in export of Guar gum in first quarter in comparison to last year in same period.  As per initial data sourced from APEDA, is showing improvement in export of guar in quantity and monitory terms. This year there is export of around 1,45,000 MT guar gum in first quarter ( April-June) , last year there was export of 75,000 MT of guar gum in the same period. In monetary terms current year export of first quarter is INR 1176 crore in same period last year export was only INR 547 Crores. If the current trend will continue throughout the year then industry will benefit from it. It is very positive sign for all the stack holders.



Recovery in crude oil prices has also seen in this week.  Currently crude is trading above USD 50/barrel. Demand of guar gum will increase with increasing crude oil prices. Crude  oil price has established as  primary benchmark for guar prices. Increasing crude oil prices will give boost to Guar gum prices. There will be increase in export. OPEC want crude oil prices above 50 USD/barrel and Shale producer (The process where guar gum is used in bulk quantity) will benefit from it. Shale producer will increase production.




There is heavy rainfall in some districts of Guar growing belt in western Rajasthan and Gujarat. There is news that Kharif crop has damaged in these districts. Guar is major Kharif crop in these area. Damage of Guar crop will lead of overall lower production of Guar. It is last time of guar sowing  and there is regular rainfall in guar growing area. Early sowing crop will benefit from it but it will be harm full for late sowing crop and new sowing of guar will go down. Late sowing Guar crop will not get sufficient time to mature. It is also noticed that rainfall is not good in rest of districts of guar growing belt. Major production of Guar comes from rainfed areas.

Currently guar is being traded around 3500. If above conditions will remain stable then prices will move out of 4000 level.  These two months are critical for guar. Due to poor arrival in current period there will be some positive correction in Guar prices. New arrival of Guar will come in market in after October. There will be pressure of new crop arrival at that time up to January-2018.

Sunday, 2 July 2017

Why does guar industry need an urgent Govt intervention ?

Guar crop is an opportunity for India. India is not able to explore full potential of Guar.  We will have to find answers of two simple questions: Why we are exporting Guar Gum powder at Rs 80 / Kg? second Why are we importing Guar Gum powder at Rs 500-1200/Kg? Why this difference of Rs 400/Kg - Rs 1100 / Kg is increasing our foreign exchange burden and trade deficit? India produce more than 85 % of world Guar what are those factors which are forcing us to import Guar at 5 -15 time of our export price? 

Guar sowing period is going on. Farmers are sowing Guar it in expectation of Rs 5000 / Kg. Guar need investment in R& D it can be private or it can be govt investment. If Indian Guar Gum industry make some contributory investment then it will give benefit to whole industry. It is an industry of 9000 crore to 10000 crore annuals. If 1% investment goes in R& then industry then within 5-6 years this industry can go up to 50,000 crore annuals. If Govt take this initiative then Govt can earn five-time foreign exchange of what India is getting right now.  Govt has put guar gum under 5 % tax category of GST.  At list 1 % (20 % of collected tax) needs to be returned back to this industry as Govt investment. 


Global chemical players are making huge margin from Indian Guar. Major demand is driven from Oil & Natural gas industry. secondary demand is coming from food & pharma industry. A small intervention can lead Indian Guar industry to new height. Four years before this Industry has given Foreign exchange of Rs 20,000 crore.

Collective post-harvest management and online trading platform can give a long term sustainable growth to this industry. Most of investment in India Guar gum industry is private/individual. Institutional investment and R&D can lead this industry toward new height. There is full potential of growth. Major portion of Guar seed production is going in Cattle feed Industry due to heavy protein content in Guar seed. There is 70-75 % recovery of Guar Churi Korma from Guar seed to Guar gum processing. Agronomically there is requirement of high yielding varieties. Average Guar seed production in Guar growing belt is 5-6 Quintal per hectare. There is good potential to take this production up to 10-12 Quintal per hectare. 

Wednesday, 21 June 2017

Future of Guar seed & guar gum in new production cycle

Monsoon has delayed in Guar growing belt. Minor rainfall is noticed in few areas. As per meteorological department monsoon arrival will be delayed by one weak. It will not affect the sowing of guar in guar growing belt. As major production will come from rainfed area. Sowing of Guar keep going up to last of July in rainfed area. Early sowing guar crop is standing good . 

During last production cycle, Guar prices remained stable with periodic up and down. New production cycle has been started. Farmers and traders both are worried about future of Guar commodity. Sowing area of guar is expected to go down with poor performance of Guar commodity. Farmers will move toward kharif pulses as govt has increased the MSP and pulses has performed better than Guar during last production cycle. Farmers are getting more security in kharif pulses. 


Traders and processors have also stuck in Guar. Many plants have shut down. Guar Churi Korma is giving economic viability to functional plants. No short supply was noticed during last production cycle. There was sufficient arrival of Guar for the processor as per requirement. Supply of Guar is also expected to remain normal in new production cycle. Crop from rainfed area will be sufficient for processor demand. Crude prices are also under pressure due to global crude oil production. It is expected that crude prices will remain around the level of last year. Most of guar gum powder is used in crude oil industry. 

Prices of Guar will remain in same level during next year. It will keep moving around 3000 to 3500 level. For a small period it touched 4000 level but again it slipped toward 3500 level. Guar gum will keep moving around 7000-7500 level. Domestic demand of Guar is not too much. Most of Guar is consumed in cattle feed industry as Guar Churi Korma.  There is sufficient stock of Guar with stockist. Stock of guar will come in new production cycle as storage cost if increasing. There is saturation of Guar with stockist. Monsson is expected to remain normal. If the climatic and cultivation conditions will be in favor of Guar crop then Guar prices may slip below 3000, due to sufficient supply.. 


Monday, 22 May 2017

Pre-monsoon rainfall and future of Guar seed / guar gum

This year guar remained a low-profile commodity. Trading of new crop was started at 3300 and it could not cross 4000 level. Currently it is being traded at Rs 3750. It remained a loss-making business for stockist and traders; as cost of storage, interest on capital and moisture loss were in addition on buying cost. Crude prices in international market was major factor which kept pressure on guar prices in addition existing stock and low demand of guar gum in comparison to last year were another factor which kept prices of Guar moving around 3500.



After all pressure guar didn’t below 3000.Prices of Churi Korma were also profit making venture. International demand is mainly derived from USA, China, Germany and Russia.  It is expected that this year guar cultivation area is going to shrink. IN irrigated area Cotton is major replacement and Pulses will be major replacement in rainfed area. 

Current pre-monsoon rainfall is covering entire Guar growing belt of Rajasthan from Hanumanagarh, Bikaner to Jodhpur and Jalore. Prices will come keep moving toward 3000 with this pattern of rainfall. Early sowing is considered is Good in rainfed area and in Irrigated cotton cultivation will increase as farmers will able to do sowing of cotton in more area with same water. Initial fundamentals are not positive for Guar seed and Guar gum.


Prices will keep moving with subsequent rainfall pattern. Any uneven rainfall weather it is low or high will give boost to Guar prices. Both conditions are agronomically bad for guar cultivation. Rainfall is not only fundamental to decide Guar prices. International political coincidences will also put indirect impact on Guar. Crude output and Crude prices will major fundamental factor which will put impact on Guar prices. Guar prices will adjust steps with international demand or export of guar gum figure. 



Cultivation area of Guar will be major factor which will decide movement of guar for next 12 months. Guar cultivation area and guar prices will run on different tracks. Increasing Cultivation area will lead to decrease in Guar prices. Current contract of Guar in commodity market will carry on up to July and new contract will start in October. Let see whether Guar will shine like Gold or it will remain a Gallow of farmers and traders.  

Thursday, 9 March 2017

What is making guar seed / guar gum to jump up high.

During this trading month guar has climbed more than 25-30 %. It has given return of 25%-30 % within one month. Prices of guar seed is about to touch Rs 4000/100 Kg in physical market and prices of guar gum is about to touch 8500/100Kg. Almost guar has gained 30 % from level of Rs 3000/100Kg and guar gum has gained 41% from the level of Rs 6000/100Kg.

This year production of guar was very low in comparison to last years. It is estimated that there was production of 80,00,000 Bags during last cropping season.  This production was not sufficient for the annual demand. Carry over stock is helping to meet demand of guar for this year. If prices remain below INR 4000/100Kg then cultivation of guar seed will be down in next cropping season.


While discussing with market men it was found that arrival of guar is very low in market and it is expected to remain low specially in two months. Farmers will busy in their farm operation in this month and traders will start to trade in Rabi commodities. There will be problem in smooth supply in markets. Manufacturers are facing shortage of guar seed for processing.

Crude oil prices were also stable over USD50/ barrel during last months and it was a good support for guar in long term to be in bullish trend. There is also news that shale oil production is high in USA.  Trump administration is also positive about the increase in shale oil production.

Export data are positive during last two month. On an average, there is export of 35000 MT guar gum export in one month during last three months. Which was dropped up to 20000Mt/Month during December 2016. There is some news that stock of guar in Housten / Texas is also low.  Export to Other countries is also increasing. Another major demand is coming from Russia. Export data of food grade guar is positive. There is regular demand of food grade guar from European countries. Guar plants are running.



Technically Guar is not shining, it is recovering from down fall. It will remain in recovery trend up to 4500/ 100Kg. After that we can consider some positive movement. Guar gum need more recovery as per current prices guar gum must be around 10,000/100KKg but it is still below 9000/100Kg.

Last year guar seed was arrived at 4500/100Kg and this year it started from 3500/100Kg. If we calculate the cost of commodity + Interest on Capital + Loss of moisture + Storage expenses of Guar seed then guar must be around 4500/100Kg. Last year carry over stock is costing 4500/100Kg as raw commodity and other expenses are double. If current prices will be demand driven, then prices of gaur must be higher than 4500/100Kg (an average of fresh crop and carry over stock) and guar gum must be around 10000/100kg.

Weather data of Monsoon prediction are negative and rainfall is expected to remain late and lower than average and there rumor of poor production in next cultivation season.  But technically If there will be delay in Monsoon then guar production area will increase as cultivation are of other commodities will shrink in western Rajasthan.



Crude prices in international market will decide long term positions of Guar. Geopolitical situation is stable in comparison to last year but it is not improving. It expected to remain plunged and it will be not investment friendly. Market men are looking speculative movement in guar. It is best time to manipulate the demand & prices as supply is tight and export is positive. March Delivery in NCDEX will decide the further price movement. Please avoid the short-term positions.

Thursday, 2 February 2017

Guar is fading its shine ?

Guar remained a low-profile commodity till 2012. It is an industrial crop. There is wide range of application of guar gum powder. Guar is a highest number of industrial application in all agriculture commodities. It is used in food, food processing, textile, paper, printing, mining, oil natural gas industry, cement, pet feed, fish fee, cattle feed, cosmetics, detergent, toiletry, medicinal, pharmaceutical, and much more. After the boom in 2012 it drew global attention and very soon it became a most highlighted agriculture commodity. India is largest supplier of Guar in world. It is cultivated in low fertile, lower water availability and stress climatic conditions.



Farmers of desert of THAR started to see guar as a ray hope. Guar gum processing emerged as an important industry in Guar growing belt. Prices of guar is under pressure of supply since last 4 Year and now farmers are losing the hope. This year everyone is in loss farmers got good return from other pulses crop. Stockist invested the money but prices are going down and down regularly. Interest on investment is giving another wound. Storage loss is worry for farmers and stockist, Guar processing industries are shutting down. Guar is not preforming well in commodity exchange. 

This year cultivation area was low and new production of guar is also low. Farmers have already started to reject Guar crop and cultivation area has shrink 40-50% in irrigated belt. Now stockist are coming out from guar stock, due to continuous negative return. Old stock of Guar is coming in market and it is putting supply pressure. Investors are clearing their stock and entering in other commodities. Guar processing industry are now making profitable return on investment they are recovering tehri expenses from the Churi Korma sale. Viability of guar processing is coming from Churi Korma. Churi Korma is getting tough competition from Soybean de-oiled cake. Soybean prices are low and DOC is available at low prices.

Next 4-5 months are very critical for Guar if prices remain low then cultivation area will shrink. Next year production will further go down. Heavy rain and Low rain both conditions are bad for guar. If climatic conditions remain extreme, then Guar production will further down. Prices of guar are at lowest level. At this level, there are minimum chances of further drop down in guar prices due to strong support of Churi Korma. Generally, supply of guar comes down by the end of December, but this year supply of guar is not coming down due to exit of investors from Guar and old stock is coming in market.  If all the conditions remain positive, then guar may touch 4000 level at upper side. 

Guar is an important agriculture commodity, mismatch in demand and supply has lead it negative growth. Guar cultivation area will shrink further if the demand of guar will rise. Export data of guar gum for this financial will decide the further movement in guar. Demand will remain low in next two month as new contract of guar supply will be signed in next financial year.