Friday, 30 December 2016
First stage of demonetization has almost completed. Supply chain of most of commodities have disrupted badly and prices dropped down. Guar prices could remain stable at lower level and no major fall in prices have noticed.
Guar gum split & Guar gum powder are exportable commodity and major portion is exported to USA. There was also some uncertainty in USA about coming president but now it is clear after the USA presidential election. Demand of guar gum will remain positive during Trump era. Trump will support fracking activity and keep USA self-sufficient in oil production. New contract of guar export will be signed and shale oil will remain competitive to gulf oil.
This year guar production was lower than last year and demand of guar seed will rise with growing export. Most of guar seed which is stocked in ware house was stocked at higher than 4500/100Kg level. Stockist will minimize the loss and they will release guar slowly and slowly toward 4500/100Kg level. We have seen a lot of up and down in guar prices but it is still trying to remain higher than 3200/100Kg level. Guar gum prices are also under pressure but it is maintaining the level higher than INR 6000/100Kg.
Try to avoid selling at lower level, prices of guar seed and guar gum will not go below INR 3200/100 kg and INR 6000/100Kg. Major peak arrival has stopped now. Supply of gaur seed will be very tight in market. It will remain tight up to next harvesting in October-2017. Demand of guar korma is also good and It is giving support to guar prices at lower level. Currently prices are under advance selling pressure but it will be hard to sell at lower prices for stockist and traders.
Prices of other commodities have fallen but guar is firm at its lower level. Crude oil prices are also growing and it is above USD 50/barrel. Export of guar gum is also expected to rise in coming months. Guar will also benefit from online transactions. Scenario of guar will change in post Makar Sankranti period. Prices will rise with short supply.
Monday, 12 December 2016
Guar is a arid crop grown in Western Part of India. Botanically it is known as Cyamopsis tetragonoloba. This area is arid area and rainfall is very low. Guar crop is grown here since centuries. Guar seed is processed into Guar gum powder which is used in many industries. In Portuguese guar gum is known as "Goma De Guar" in Spanish it is known as "Goma de Guar". In Germen it is Known as "Guarkernmehl". In French it is Known as "La gommede guar". In Russian it is known as "Гуаровая камедь". In greek it is known as " κόμμιγκουάρ ". In Swedish it is known as " Guargummi ". In Chinese It is known as "瓜爾豆膠 " In Italian it is known as "Gomma di Guar". In polish it is known as "Guma guar".
Guar is a annual legume crop. It is cultivated in low water condition and well drainage soils for good root development. Guar is a nitrogen fixation crop. Guar is also used as green manure. Green pos of Guar is used as vegetable purpose like other beans. Guar plant is good fodder for cattle. Cooked Guar seed is used as concentrated for milking cattle's. By product of guar seed processing is known as Guar meal, Guar korma. There is 50-56% protein in Guar Korma.
Guar gum seed is an industrial crop. Guar gum power is used in many industries. Guar gum is used in many food application as viscosity agent. Guar gum is also used as stabilizer. Guar gum is widely used in sauces, ketchup, Juice, ice cream , biscuits, Gluten free cooking and many more . Guar gum is used in printing industry as moisture retention in Ink. Guar gum is used in paper industry. Guar gum is used in textile industry.
Guar gum is widely used in cosmetic items, shampoo, moisturizers, liquid shop, lipsticks and many more. Guar gum is widely used in pharmaceuticals industry as binding agent , viscosity agent. Guar gum is used as dietary fibres. Guar gum used in fish and meal industry. The major application of guar gum is in oil and natural gas industry. Guar gum is used as drilling chemical in Oil and Natural Gas Industry. Around 60 % demand arise from oil and Natural Gas Industry.
Guar gum is very good agriculture crop and Guar gum is beneficial at every stage, green stage is used as green manure, Green pods of Guar gum are is used as vegetable, Guar gum Seeds is used as cattle concentrate, We provide complete solution for Guar gum and Guar gum seed cultivation and guar gum seed processing, with complete market intelligence and product information.
Monday, 21 November 2016
Prime Minister Nagendra Modi came with scheme of demonetization of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 currency notes to eradicate the parallel economy. This parallel economy consists the corruption, black money, illegal trading, terrorism, narcotics, and other anti-social and criminal activities. This is a very good step for the country in short term and long term. In short term, it will break down the existing chain of parallel economy immediately and in long term size of Indian economy will grow.
Indian Guar gum industry is facing problem of speculations and illegal trading due to black economy. Every honest stack holder is facing problem in Indian Gaur gum industry from farmers to exporters. They don’t know what will be next move in their business. In the morning prices goes up sharply and in the evening prices goes down drastically. A lot of black money has invested in trading, stocking of Gaur seed. These greedy traders/stockist/ exporters gives the movement to prices as per their profit.
Guar farmers and Demonetization.
Farmers is the first point of guar trade. He produces guar seed with expectations of good prices but at the time of harvesting he could not able to recover his cost of cultivation. How is it possible? When farmer carry his produce in the market greedy stockist increase the parallel supply of seed in market and farmer is forced to sell his guar at lower prices. If there will be no black money, then it will not be possible to increase the parallel supply and farmer will get the real value of his produce.
At the time of guar crop sowing these illegal traders / stockist increases the demand and farmers are forced to buy guar seed at higher prices.
Some traders procure guar seed parallel by offering the extra payment and ditching the local mandi taxes. This farm incomes remain hidden. After demonetization, parallel buying will stop and funds will be transferred to farmer’s account after paying the mandi taxes. Transactions will be transparent. It is noticed if farmers ask for transparent transactions then these traders deduct the mandi taxes from the farmers’ payment.
Sometime traders don’t give payment on time. Some traders don’t give sale slips to farmers, it becomes very problematic for farmers to prove the source of their income to banks to get the loans. Traders purchases commodity with 30 % payment and rest of payment is made after 20-30 Days or more.
Traders purchase commodities from farmers at the time of low prices/ over supply but these traders show this buying at the time of high prices to minimize their profit or to show the losses. By the paying the 2% Mandi taxes they by passes the income taxes. The income of local agriculture market doesn’t increase and marketing infrastructure is not developed. These transactions will be come in accounts and farmer income will be documented and farmers can get more loan from banks. Credit worthiness of farmers will increase slowly and slowly. Farmers will easily get loan for other activities like personal loans, home loan, vehicle loans, entrepreneur loans, education loan.
Income of local agriculture market will increase and Govt can develop more market infrastructure. Farmers will benefit from it. Sometime farmers produce destroys due to poor infrastructure specially in the rainfall. Sometime buying of agriculture commodities is shown in another state. Mandi income & economic opportunities moves to another state. This trend can be seen in Rajasthan at the boarder of Haryana and Gujarat.
Guar Traders and Demonetization.
Honest traders face many problems due to black economy some time they can’t get enough margin due to surrounding black economy. Local traders of guar growing area keep waiting for arrival. Commodities reaches to another market by passing the local economy and traders. Black money comes from another market and it destroy the business of local traders. Local employment, trading, stocking, processing, tax earning move to another location.
Black economy also lead to circular trading. In the circular trading business of local traders is affected negatively. Traders are forced to buy the commodities at higher prices. These circular traders withdraw draw their investments, swap the profit, and dump the commodities in market. Sometime this back money doesn’t let the prices goes up even in low productions even the fix costs of commodities trading keep increasing.
After demonetization transactions will come in account books and no one can enter with white money in this way. Investment of traders will be secure and their margin and profit will be secure. They can generate more income with local value addition related to grading, ware housing. processing and transportation.
Guar seed processors.
Existing guar processors faces a lot of problem with black money. Sometime new processors enter in market with black money and started to work with loss or zero margin and it affects the trade of existing processors. They started to offer finished products with lower prices than purchase prices of guar seeds. Income generation cycles of existing honest processors break down and it require extra cost to start there processing or keep it running.
After a certain time, these greedy processors started adulteration and decrease quality of product and it draw negative picture of the local processors in international market. Sometime complete consignment faces problem due to one or two containers. Sometime raw material is swap from the market with black money and supply of raw material becomes very tight it effects the margin of processors.
These greedy processors also disturb trained human resources by offering them higher packages and more facilities for short term. Existing processors faces a lot of problem with vacuum of trained employees. After demonetization, existing processors will get raw material locally and they can plan for long term sustainable profits/margins.
At this times guar processing activities is focused in three four locations in India it will diversify with availability of the raw material. Processors can invest in R& D in guar products. There will be no fear of the sudden loss in business.
Commodity exchange were established to provide fair business activities platform to farmers, traders, and exporters but black economy promotes the Dubba Trading / Illegal commodity exchange. Dubba trading influence the physical market. Sometimes operators of these illegal exchanges create artificial situations of the oversupply and shortage to draw their profit. Prices become unstable in real exchanges investors makes a lot of losses.
Guar gum Exporters
Sometimes new exporters enter in market with back money and start to export of guar gum at lower prices than market prices. It cut down the margins of existing honest exporters. Sometimes these types of exporters open another company in importing nation and keep exporting material at lower prices. They earn margin in importing country it forces to existing local exporters to export the commodity at no margin or loss. Buyer base of existing customers also shift to new exporters. Generally, exporters get long term orders but with these practices buyers starter to give small orders as material is available in importing country with cash and carry system.
In conclusion guar gum industry, a lot of speculations and prices keep fluctuating regularly. With small influence of black money complete industry is facing the problem. Demonetization will eradicate the black money and activities related to illegal trading, hoarding, adulteration will come down and complete industry will come in profit. All the stack holders of guar industry will benefit from the demonetization. It will lead to long term sustainable profitable margins.
Friday, 28 October 2016
Business activities are sluggish there is poor demand due to on-going Diwali celebrations. Arrival is also low in markets there is no more supply pressure. Most of business activities like arrival, transportation, processing and export will be muted. Business activities will be resume after 3rd November. Crude oil prices are under pressure. These are trading below USD 50/barrel.
Processing activities will be remained low during next 10-15 Days. There is arrival of 65000 Bags per day. Arrival is not increasing due to lower production. Over all business activities will be remained slow during next 8-10 Days. There will supply pressure and impact of poor demand.
Posted By Ganesh Prajapat Postet at 15:59:00
Labels: Advance estimate of Guar seed production 2016-2017, current guar gum prices, Cyamopsis tetragonoloba, Guar gum export
Saturday, 22 October 2016
Guar cropping cycle for this year has almost completed. Crop has been harvested and most threshing has been completed remaining will be completed in this month. Next supply will come in October-2017. Demand for next 12 months will be completed from existing stock and current arrival.
Over all crop cultivation conditions were poor for guar cultivation. The first rainfall covered only few patches in rain fed area of Haryana & Hanumangarh, Churu, Jhnjhanun and Sikar. At that time prices of kharif pulses were high and farmers were preferring only pulses like Moong and Moth over the guar crop. In these area guars was cultivation only 5 % of total sowing area. It was just 20 % of Last year crop. This crop developed very well and it was the early crop of Guar.
Next arrival of rainfall covered other parts of Guar growing area excluding Barmer, and Jaisalmer. By this time prices of pulses were high and farmers were still preferring pulses crops over Guar crop. Guar was cultivated just 30% of last year. This crop did not get the enough cultivation conditions and crop is poor in comparison to Last year except Ganaganagar due to irrigated cultivation conditions.
Some patched of Guar growing belt were still waiting for Guar specially in Barmer, Jodhpur and Jaisalmer area. By the End of August there was rainfall in these areas. Farmers preferred Guar over other crop due natural growing conditions in these area and low investment. With increasing cultivation area of pulses, prices started to come down and it reached in the range of Guar. Rainfall was very good and there was continuous rainfall for 6-7 Days. Farmers started the cultivation of Guar but rainfall pattern was uneven. Crop did not get the second rainfall in most of area. And around 60-65% crop was damaged. Productivity of rest of crop is very low around 50 Kg-100 Kg/ Hectare.
This year over all cultivation of Guar was on 20,00,000 hectares in Rajasthan and Total cultivation of Guar was not more than 25,00,000 hectares in India including Haryana and Gujarat. Overall production is expected to remain below 400Kg/Hectare as most of cultivation area was under rain fed condition and crop was damaged on large area in this belt. Even in Haryana, major cultivation area was limited to rain-fed area.
As per primary estimate by keeping all the factor in view, overall production of Guar will be remaining around 80,00,000 Bags. Thus, production side of guar is in favour boom. Crop is poor.
Current market activities:
Arrival of guar is at its peak. Generally, by these days’ arrival reaches up to 100000-125000 Bags per day but it is not crossing 65,000 Bags per day. It is showing the actual availability of commodity with farmer. In the market traders are buying guar at Rs 3300-3400/100Kg. But in interior location small traders are buying at Rs 3100-3200/100Kg and supplying to stockist. Speculators are active and they are buying full-fledged.
Group of traders are active in market and putting the pressure on guar prices so that it should remain low and they pick the material at lower prices. Prices are not moving more than Rs 3600/100kg but it is also not falling below the 3200/100Kg even in this peak arrival. As per marketmen prices will improve but it will improve once the material will come out from the hands of Traders and farmers. Now processors and exporters want to stock at lower prices. Farmers and Traders want to sell at higher prices.
Demand of Guar is poor now but it is improving that’s good for guar industry. In international market, crude oil prices are improving and it is maintaining current level above USD50/barrel. Oil rigs count is also increasing. Korma prices are high and at lower side it is giving support to Guar seed prices. Except the regular demand there will be demand of Guar seed and seed for next cropping season. Next week is expected to remain sluggish for business activities. As there are holidays for 5-6 Days.
Most of processing industries remained closed and labor and employs goes on holidays and they will return on first week on November. Arrival will go down in November and supply will become tight in comparison to the demand. Major arrival from irrigated area will be very low. Good quality material comes from the irrigated belt. As per marketmen availability of material below 3500 is good for investment for next 6-12 Months and Guar will give good return from these levels. Guar is still strong commodity in comparison to other Kharif commodities specially in Guar growing belt.
Posted By Ganesh Prajapat Postet at 16:25:00
Labels: Advance estimate of Guar gum ( guar seed) Production, Advance estimate of Guar seed production 2016-2017, Cyamopsis tetragonoloba, Future guar gum prices, Guar Gum, Guar gum export
Saturday, 15 October 2016
Guar remained stable but it dropped at weekend with increased arrival. In this week Guar remained around 3500. Arrival of Guar seed in increasing from guar producing belt. Market is in buying mode and prices are stabilising at current level. There is also additional pressure of contract settlement in October month.
Maturity of crop.
Crop has matured in most of area and farmers are harvesting it. No rainfall has noticed and that is good for crop drying and maturity. Harvesting has completed in irrigated belt. Farmers in rain fed belt are still harvesting manually. Before Diwlai most of harvest will be completed and cropping cycle will finish. Arrival will keep increase up to Diwali and it will remain peak arrival up to 15th November.
Stocking activity has started with the increased arrival and it will keep going full-fledged up to December. 50 % of arrival is coming markets for selling and 50% material is diverting to stockist through small village level traders. This year estimated production of Guar is around 80 Lac bags. 40 -50 Bags bags of material will be stocked up to November. Current prices of Guar are good for long term stocking for 6-12 months. There is no any major chances of prices fall.
Crude oil is improving
Crude oil is maintaining its level above USD50/ barrel. It is good for Guar industry. A long term stability will give support to Guar gum prices. Guar gum prices will further give support to guar seed prices.
Estimate of crop
As per information coming from different sources. Estimate of guar crop will remain below 1 Crore ( 10 Million) bags this year. A tentative estimate is coming around 80,00,000 Lac ( 8 Million) bags. Total Guar gum industry will depend on this arrival up to October 2017. Since It is a monopoly crop of India and there is no any other source of guar production globally except small portion from Pakistan.
End of October contract in NCDEX.
October contract will finish on 20th October and there will be some settlement pressure on Guar prices with increased arrival in physical market. Its will settle between 3400-3500 level.
Physical arrival has increased in market and there will be some pressure on prices but due to low production and strong buying prices will remain stable around current level of 3400/100Kg. With peak arrival prices will remain around the current level. Prices of crude will give further support to the guar gum prices.
There are no any chances of Major gain before Diwali. After Diwali arrival will slow down and prices will move upward. If all the factors remain positive, then November contract will settle around 4000 /100Kg of more. It is good time and Good price for physical stock. There is also news of increase in export of Guar gum powder during last month.
Saturday, 24 September 2016
Guar seed and guar gum kept moving upward and reached at very good level. Guar seed reached to 3800/100kg and guar gum reached to the level of 7250 with news crop damage due to water scarcity and return of Monsoon. At the mid of week profit book leaded to further down fall in prices. After the profit booking Guar seed dropped to the level of 3650/100Kg. Guar gum dropped to the level of 7050.
In the last of week, rainfall has noticed in scattered area in small– small patches. In some belt halls storm has noticed. There are two cluster of Guar first is early sown crop area and another is late crop sown area. If there is any rainfall in the late sown crop, then it is good but it is very dangerous in the early sowing crop. Matured pod will pop up with force of wind. If there is any precipitation, then mature crop will turn black.
Late crop sown in rain fed area of Bikaner, Jodhpur, Barmer and Jaisalmenr has damaged on large level and there are no any chances of recovery. In some area of Barmer and Jaisalmer crop is delaying the flowing stage and it is growing vegetative. Crop has also damaged with halls and wind storm and a large level in productive area of Hanumangarh, Ganganagar and Haryana. Local farmers are asking administration for assessment of loss and compensation.
Disease and Insect Attack
Early crop has matured so there is no chances of disease and insect attack. But if there will rainfall and cloudy condition for 5-6 days then disease may outbreak in late sown crop area.
Stockist are active in market and buying the new crop. Processors have fear if the crop production will remain low then they will have to buy the material at upper prices and it will bite their profit. Full-fledged stocking will start around 10th -15th October, when arrival will start from all the belts. As per market men once the demand will rise then stocking will consume most of material form market.
Crude oil is stabilising
Crude oil is keep moving between 40-50 USD/ barrel. No major improvement and downward movement has noticed. Since last one year it is stabilising below 50 USD/ barrel.
Oil rigs are Increasing
This is a positive news for industry that oil rigs are increasing regularly. Major guar gum is used in fresh drilling. It is good for Industry that demand of Gaur gum is improving in market. Drilling companies are giving orders for long term supply some commission agent are creating problems and playing in market at minimum commission. Manufacturers must avoid the middle men so that prices could be negotiated directly with the end users.
Estimate of crop
Estimate of crop is major puzzle in the Industry. With different view it is at different level. People who are in downtrend are estimating 3,00,00,000 Bags. Govt is estimating around 2,00,00,000 Bags. The person who are in upward trend are estimating around 50,00,000 Bags. As per independent sources crop is estimated around 80,00,000 - 90,00,000 Bags it is as per ground reality. People are worry about the carry over stock. Carry over stock is not a major issue as market can consume/stock around 2,00,00,000 Bags for long term if market is improving.
Fresh crop arrival
Arrival has start bull fledged arrival will start around the 10th October. Before this farmer will try to sell the existing stock. Generally, in fresh arrival three is 18-20% % moisture. It will take time to dry the fresh harvest for 10-15 Days and moisture will come around 15%. Generally, Guar is stored on 12% moisture. In one-year-old crop moisture is around 10-12% and farmers get good price in comparison to new crop. One-year-old crop will come in market for processing and fresh crop will go to stocking. Arrival has started in Haryana and Hanumangarh due to rainfall it will again delay by 5-10 Days has mature crop will take another 10-15 days in drying.
It is a stable period. There are no any major chances of upward movement as there will pressure of physical arrival in markets. Prices will again reach to 4,000 level and time it will not move down. Stocking will increase with arrival and prices will not go down again. There will stability in prices and at this time there is requirement of stability. Once the 50 % arrival will complete then market will feel the low arrival and traders/ stockist will forced to increase the prices to collect more material. Arrival will also tight with increasing prices.
Guar has improved from lower level first it was stabilizing above 3100 level after it improved to 3300 level, after that its stabilized above 3500 level. Now it is stabilizing above 3600 level. Next week is very important as existing contract will either settle of these will forward to next month contract.
Saturday, 17 September 2016
Guar seed and Guar gum recovered after water deficiency due to poor rainfall
Guar remain strong in this week after return of Monsoon. It started to move from 3550/100kg and one tiem it reached 3750/100kg. Guar gum also remained strong it started to move from 6500 and reached to 6900.Some local demand was noticed but major impact was from the factor of return of monsoon. Late sown crop will damage on large scale.
Monsoon has Returned
No rainfall has noticed in Guar growing belt. Monsoon has completely stopped. Climate is very Hot in Guar growing belt. There is no humidity in air. Dry air is blowing. Crop will dry within 10-15 Days. Initial rainfall was good but the second round and third round rainfall was very poor. Rainfall pattern was good for the early crop. But for late sown crop patter was very bad and crop did not get even second rainfall after the sowing.
Rain fed area of Bikaner, Ganganagar, Jaisalmer, Barmer, Jodhpur is facing crop damage on large area. Around 40-50% crop will be damaged and rest crop produce will be of inferior quality. Major quality produce will come from Haryana, Hanumangarh, Churu and Some parts of Ganganagar. In these location there was early crop. Production Gujarat will be also poor. Only early sowing will be successful.
Disease and Insect Attack
No major disease and insect outbreak has noticed. This year disease outbreak conditions were not formed. In the last stage it is dry climate and crop is safe from any major economic loss.
No major stocking activity has noticed but as per primary inputs of low production small traders have started to collect guar from the nearby area. As per market information stockist have dispersed some money to small traders for early collection of crop. Big processors are waiting for end of September and they will start from the arrival of crop. In the First stage around 1,00,00,000 Bags will be stocked.
Crude oil is stabilising
Crude is major factor which will decide the further price movement. No major price improvement has noticed in crude oil but it is stabilizing. Within this production cycle Crude will take a major upward movement and Guar will grow with this.
Oil rigs are Increasing
It is good news that oil rigs are increasing in USA. Growing oil rigs will require drilling chemical and demand of guar gum will increase. It is very positive sign for industry.
Stock in USA.
Ready stock in USA has come down. Right now no stock is available in USA. Last year there was problem of ready stock in USA. Now drilling companies will have to give the order for 6 month or 12-month supply.
Crop is estimates around 80 Lac bags after failure of crop in rainfed area. This year irrigated crop was very less. Early crop is in good condition but most of cultivation was started in August and August crop is late crop and all the late crop are facing water scarcity. As per estimate crop will be remain around 75 Lac bags. There is no any chances of improvement in this figure.
Arrival of Crop
Arrival of crop has been started in Haryana specially in Adampur and Sirasa area. It is noticed that stockist are purchasing the arrival. Arival will start in Hanumangarh and Ganganagar in Next week. By first week of October arrival will start in Churu and by the mid of October will arrival will start in rets of area.
Though the current demand is low it moving due to crop damage and low rainfall. Current upward movement will work as bridge between Stocking activity and price movement due to low rainfall. Now the prices will not fall freely by the end of November. In next week some profit booking can be noticed but overall direction will be upward.
Friday, 16 September 2016
Monsoon has about to return with in one-two days. There is no rainfall in rain fed belt of Guar cultivation. There is more loss in late sowing crop. Late sowing crop is facing the heavy scarcity of water. Right now there are no chances of rainfall crop will damage on large scale. Farmers who opted gaur cultivation in last stage are facing the drought condition.
There can be some profit booking in short term but in long term guar will recover very fast. Arrival of gaur will depend on prices of Guar. It will be very hard for traders to source guar at current level. Stocking of guar will start with initial arrival and prices will go up. After the stocking prices will move with tight supply. Supply of Guar will be very tight up to next production in October - 2017.The opening of Gaur will again up in next week. Forward contract will give additional support to Guar.
Guar prices were down due to prediction of large cultivation; Production related predictions has been stopped now. Prices will move up with loss related predictions and conditions. Situation will clear by the end of September.
Wednesday, 14 September 2016
Market has come in buying mode. Prices are moving very fast in the forward market. Physical market is in selling position. More and more commodity is coming in market above 3500 level in fear of fresh arrival of crop after two months. All the stack holders in industry are denying the govt data of Guar cultivation. This weak is very critical for the growth of crop and growth of guar rates. If there will be no rainfall then crop will damage in large geographical area and production estimate will drop down to 40% of current estimates.
Guar is very sensitive commodity with respect to demand and supply. Due to long self-life of seeds and longer storage capacity farmers choose to sell guar as last option. This year Pulses will come in market first then Guar will come in market. In irrigated area, most of farmers sell the gaur to traders against the advance, which have given by traders on credit during cropping period. As per crop cycle this is not a demand period. Demand will start after December and January. The peak arrival period will start after 15 Days. Market will run after the December.