Saturday, 17 September 2016

Guar seed and Guar gum recovered after return of Monsoon

Guar seed and Guar gum recovered after water deficiency due to poor rainfall

Guar remain strong in this week after return of Monsoon. It started to move from 3550/100kg and one tiem it reached 3750/100kg. Guar gum also remained strong it started to move from 6500 and reached to 6900.Some local demand was noticed but major impact was from the factor of return of monsoon. Late sown crop will damage on large scale. 



Monsoon has Returned

No rainfall has noticed in Guar growing belt.  Monsoon has completely stopped. Climate is very Hot in Guar growing belt. There is no humidity in air. Dry air is blowing. Crop will dry within 10-15 Days. Initial rainfall was good but the second round and third round rainfall was very poor. Rainfall pattern was good for the early crop.  But for late sown crop patter was very bad and crop did not get even second rainfall after the sowing.

Crop Damage:

Rain fed area of Bikaner, Ganganagar, Jaisalmer, Barmer, Jodhpur is facing crop damage on large area. Around 40-50% crop will be damaged and rest crop produce will be of inferior quality. Major quality produce will come from Haryana, Hanumangarh, Churu and Some parts of Ganganagar. In these location there was early crop. Production Gujarat will be also poor. Only early sowing will be successful.

Disease and Insect Attack

No major disease and insect outbreak has noticed. This year disease outbreak conditions were not formed.  In the last stage it is dry climate and crop is safe from any major economic loss. 



Stocking

No major stocking activity has noticed but as per primary inputs of low production small traders have started to collect guar from the nearby area. As per market information stockist have dispersed some money to small traders for early collection of crop. Big processors are waiting for end of September and they will start from the arrival of crop.  In the First stage around 1,00,00,000 Bags will be stocked.

Crude oil is stabilising

Crude is major factor which will decide the further price movement. No major price improvement has noticed in crude oil but it is stabilizing. Within this production cycle Crude will take a major upward movement and Guar will grow with this.

Oil rigs are Increasing

It is good news that oil rigs are increasing in USA. Growing oil rigs will require drilling chemical and demand of guar gum will increase. It is very positive sign for industry.



Stock in USA.

Ready stock in USA has come down. Right now no stock is available in USA. Last year there was problem of ready stock in USA.  Now drilling companies will have to give the order for 6 month or 12-month supply. 

Crop Estimates 

Crop is estimates around 80 Lac bags after failure of crop in rainfed area. This year irrigated crop was very less. Early crop is in good condition but most of cultivation was started in August and August crop is late crop and all the late crop are facing water scarcity.  As per estimate crop will be remain around 75 Lac bags. There is no any chances of improvement in this figure. 

Arrival of Crop

Arrival of crop has been started in Haryana specially in Adampur and Sirasa area. It is noticed that stockist are purchasing the arrival. Arival will start in Hanumangarh and Ganganagar in Next week. By first week of October arrival will start in Churu and by the mid of October will arrival will start in rets of area.




Price movement

Though the current demand is low it moving due to crop damage and low rainfall. Current upward movement will work as bridge between Stocking activity and price movement due to low rainfall. Now the prices will not fall freely by the end of November. In next week some profit booking can be noticed but overall direction will be upward.

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