Friday, 21 November 2014

Next Three tier Panchayat election ( rural area election) and Guar seed rates in 2014-2015

Guar seed rates are under heavy pressure due to over supply in market. Now the rural election will put an extra pressure on guar seed rates. There are three tier elections in Rajsthan in Jan and Feb. There wil be three elections at the same time; village level ( SARPANCH ), Block level ( PRADHAN ) and District level ( JILA PRAMUKH). More than 2000-2500 candidates will contest election in Guar growing belt. Guar will be financier of these elections in rural area.




Candidates will liquidate their Guar stock to contest  the election. Normally village level election are contest on own money by candidates instead of party fund like MLA or MP. 

Guar will come out from farmers storage to market. Village elections are becoming very expensive in India. There is direct interaction of   candidate and voters. candidate spend huge money to influence the voters. Guar is only commodity which is stored for long time in guar growing belt. Mostly big farmers stock the guar at village level, These same big farmers are politically active. Rural peopel are more political active than urban people.

Currently Guar is being traded at rs 4800 in NCDEx and 4500-4600 in Local market. there are clear possibilities that Guar will reach at the level of 4000 in local market before coming village elections. The guar Gum rate may reach up to a level of 115-120/Kg.

If the international energy prices will keep going down then it will directly hit the local guar market with influence of village elections. 

During last assembly election Guar was a political issue. Now Guar will emerge as Political Financier.

Tuesday, 4 November 2014

Will Guar seed and Guar Gum prices, keep falling in year ? What will be the bottom ??

I am predicting split will be at a level of Rs 110-115 level. No one is willing to stock to guar seed everyone is bypassing to next channel. Market is moving toward extreme correction like Gold and Crude oil. Guar has rose from a level of 2100 to 30,000 then stayed on 5000 not it will correct toward 2100. This is reality that there will be correction within this year and then again it will maintain new level. 


 


In future there will be no problem in supply side if there is no adverse climatic condition. Rain-fed farmer will have to grow it and he will keep growing.

Right now there is no election, there is no too much inflation, and there is no too much rise of demand in energy market. Unfortunately, greedy traders have stoked the material in Houston so Oil and Gas companies are not in hurry to buy the commodity. Those companies know that ware house charges of Houston will settle down the price of Guar gum powder, stocked there.

Indian manufacturer can stop it if they take some positive decision and some professional approach. Guar Gum has become like a vegetable in vegetable market in Houston for Oil and Natural Gas Companies. The buyer will come and buy it at any time.

Post Diwali Guar Gum Seed arrival has increased in Rajasthan.

Post Diwali Guar Seed arrival has increased in physical market market .It has reached up to a level to 1,50,000 bag / Day. It wiill reach up to 2,00,000/ day. Don,t be worry it is peak arrival time. The situation will be remain tight in coming three- four months. Guar rates are going down and down ... it has reached 5100 in spot market. In remote locations it is traded at 4500-4600 / 100 Kg. The rates will keep falling below 4000/Kg.

  1. 20/10/2014     - 92583  Qt
  2. 21/10/2014     - 54190  Qt
  3. 22/10/2014      - 23759  Qt
  4. DIWALI GAP
  5. 27/10 /2014    - 42572  Qt
  6. 28/10 /2014   - 92091  Qt
  7. 29/10 /2014   - 93695  Qt
  8. 30/10 /2014   - 94025  Qt

Above quantity is only the seed arrived in Market  (Mandi ) . It is showing a clear trend.  It is not the actual , actual will me more multiple time as local unregistered agent are engaged in Trading and engaged in supplying directly to Factories..



Post arrival guar seed arrival has increased in Rajasthan.
Guar is under double pressure....
  • No more speculative and premium rates
  • The production of other commodity are less.

After a lot UP and Down market stabilizes and rates correct automatically. Like Gold and Crude.Not a surprise if Guar dip below the red line of 4000/ Qt  in future market. in some MANDI rate of guar is coming around 4500/Qt and 4600/Qt.

Rates will improve after February and March but not too much only just because of peak arrival time will be over.