Monday, 29 December 2014

Guar gum arrival has come down in Market due to winter

This is last week of December. Winter temperature is going down and down. Guar business activities are also very slow.

Guar seed arrival in market is very low. Initially it was low due to low rates of guar seed but right now it is low due to farmer are holding guar seed, in expectation of high rates. Farmers are expecting a level of 7000-8000. Small farmer are selling the seed continuously. Some time they sell it to big farmers some time direct in the market.

Small traders who operate at village level are not getting enough arrival of seed after drop down of rate below 5000. For these traders 5000-5500 level is comfortable level. Below 5000 level farmer are not showing good response to local trader.

Stockists are not expecting too much volatility up and down in industry. As per their view they see it 5500 at higher level.  One of stockist who stock guar seed for one of Major producer is saying that manufacturer is under heavy loss due to stock of guar seed at higher rate. There will be a downfall March and April, as new commodity of Rabi Crop (winter crop) will arrive and Guar will be at its lower level.


Guar seed Guar gum cultivation / farming  in India. Sickel the major tool for  manual harvesting


Processors are expecting a rise in guar price with recovery in crude prices. Guar seed is easily available to for local processing unit. There is no any major mismatch between demand and supply. Demand and supply both are low. Guar seed is reaching to factories.

Upward price movement will be carry on farmer, Trader, Stockist and Miller all are expecting price rise. 4500-5000 is looking a stable level for coming two-three months for guar seed..

Due to cold farmers are also not carrying commodity to market. 

Tuesday, 23 December 2014

Guar Gum export to Russia will be come down due to weak Rubal

Guar Gum export to Russia will be come down due to weak Rubal 

Russia is third major importer of Indian Guar Gum after US and China . We may see a straight downfall in export of guar Gum to Russia due to weak Russian Currency ( Rubal ). As Russian Currency ( Rubal) has touched the lowest point against USD during this month..

As per a local businessman, who is dealing with Russia for Guar Gum export, is saying that in the current  quarter of curent financial year  ( October November and December), there will be  30 % low export.

As per his view there is more chances that India will lose the order of guar gum from Russia due to weak Russian Currency ( Rubal).



Guar seed /guar gum crop cultivation : Newly Harvested Crop after threshing.


Russia supplies Gas and Oil to Europe, Russia has hit from double side  Low prices of Oil and Low valuation of Russian Currency.  At another side Western Countries and Europe has put a lot of economic sanctions on Russia on the issue of Crimea. After that export or Russia to European countries has come down.

Mostly Guar Gum is used  in O&NG industry but due to low prices of oil and gas will affect the new drilling and this will lead to low demand of Guar gum.

Monday, 22 December 2014

Current market condition of Guar seed and Guar Gum

70% of guar gum is used in O&NG industry. Price of major component of O&NG, Crude oil and Natural gas are going down. And expert are predicting further downfall in both products. It is expected that Crude may cross the lower level of 35$-40$ barrel. It is not impossible the prices had reached below level of 40 $ / Barrel in August, 2008. 

Current political and economical condition does not give any sign of improvement in crude prices. There will be continuous pressure on middle-east and Russian economy due to low crude oil.


Natural gas will also not work very well as most of contract for current winter has been already done. The current down fall may not attract any new investment for future activities.



Low rate of crude and natural gas will attract the low cost inputs. Alternative / substitute of guar will create a competition in input chemical market.

Production of Guar:  There is estimated production 20 million Bags of guar seed in India in current year. 

Demand of guar: The existing contract will keep going. There is less possibilities of new contracts. 

Business activities in Guar: - Business activities in guar will be lower during next week due to yearend holidays and New Year celebrations. The export activities will be low during this period.

Supply of Guar: - This is mid of year. It will take time to come new winter crop, which generally comes in April. Sumer crop produce will be only source of fund for farmers. Guar supply will increase.  Small trader and investor will come out from the guar stock and investment that will add in supply.

Trading movement: - Downfall may continue. Current level is below Rs 120 that may reach below Rs INR 100-95. Within one month or up to Feb starting Guar gum will reach down to INR 90.  There may be also additional pressure of guar gum from existing stock. The manufacturer and importer will have pressure to sell the existing stock due to time. Might be big stockist can wait for long term price movement but small and medium stockist will react negatively and sell their stock to avoider addition loss. 

Political Movement: - Sliding down crud may lead to cheaper farm fuel, fertilizers, farm input and cheaper transportation. So there might be no major pressure on Guar from farmer side. Low inflation will not create any political aggressiveness among guar farmers. 
Next coming Three Tier Panchayat (rural) election will require addition money for contestant in guar growing region. Guar is major stock able commodity among big farmers. Low rate of guar may lead to more guar inflow in market. 

Thursday, 4 December 2014

What does " Crude Going Down " means?

Crude is going down toward USD 60/ barrel. Expert are predicting it toward USD 30/ Barrel. How will it effect the guar gum industry ?

Shale Gas Production may decrease

Crude is base of energy industry. Shale gas has emerged major competitor to crude oil  It will directly effect the shale gas production. Shale gas production is major activity where guar gum powder in used in large quantity. If shale gas production goes down then it will directly effect the guar gum consumption. and it will further miss match the demand and supply. In this condition guar gum prices will come down. It may touch the November 2010 level.

Date
Time
Rate
23 Nov 2010
12 :33 :00
5792.85
23 Nov 2010
16 :10 :00
5927.5
24 Nov 2010
12 :38 :00
6100
24 Nov 2010
15 :38 :00
6075.3
25 Nov 2010
12 :39 :00
5995.85
25 Nov 2010
15 :39 :00
5944.75
26 Nov 2010
12 :45 :00
6000
26 Nov 2010
15 :25 :00
6000
27 Nov 2010
12 :44 :00
5888.9
29 Nov 2010
12 :33 :00
6151.95
29 Nov 2010
15 :44 :00
6106.25
30 Nov 2010
12 :40 :00
6060.3
30 Nov 2010
15 :40 :00
6029.25
01 Dec 2010
12 :33 :00
5983.35
01 Dec 2010
15 :24 :00
6000
02 Dec 2010
12 :37 :00
5864.3
02 Dec 2010
15 :53 :00
5865.65
03 Dec 2010
12 :11 :00
5950
03 Dec 2010
15 :13 :00
5972.5
04 Dec 2010
13 :36 :00
6400
06 Dec 2010
12 :41 :00
6403.55
06 Dec 2010
15 :34 :00
6453.85
07 Dec 2010
12 :33 :00
6400

November - December 2010 guar gum level was around  INR 5000 - 6000 / 100 Kg. in that condition guar seed may touch INR 1700 -  INR 1800 Level.

Shale Gas Production may increase

In the condition of hyper competition, Shale gas production companies may increase the production. These companies may increase the quantity to increase there overall profit. If the production increases then  companies work on input cost control. Defiantly these companies will pay less for guar gum or these companies may switch on guar gum alternatives. All the alternatives are synthetic and rate of product can be controlled. Again guar gum may reach to the level of November - December 2010 rates.

Next 5-6 month are very criticle for guar gum industry specially in context to Guar Gum application in Shale Gas production. 





Tuesday, 2 December 2014

Gomme de guar (graines de Guar) conseils de culture en France

Gomme de guar (graines de Guar) conseils de culture en France

Gomme de guar (Cyamopsis tetragonoloba) ou de graines de guar émerge une culture industrielle majeure. Poudre de gomme de guar est fabriqué à partir de la graine de guar. Poudre de gomme de guar a l'application large dans des industries différentes. La demande importante de poudre de gomme de Guar est dérivée de l'industrie du pétrole et du gaz naturel. Poudre de gomme de guar est utilisée dans le processus de fracturation hydraulique pour la production de pétrole brut. Poudre de gomme de guar est également utilisé dans l'industrie alimentaire. Il est largement utilisé dans les aliments transformés.

Gomme de guar (Cyamopsis tetragonoloba) ou de graines de guar est culture de 90 à 120 jours. Elle peut être cultivée en état de disponibilité de basses eaux. Gestion agricole est très simple. Il ne nécessite pas de pratiques agricoles réguliers en matière de batterie de serveurs.

Solution complète pour la culture mécanique haute technologie à grande échelle, de l'approvisionnement de la bonne semence, toutes les transformation de graines de guar Guar Split, Guar korma, Guar Coulombe, poudre de gomme de Guar, approvisionnement en produits de Guar, formation et tournée de l'exposition, la Certification de qualité internationale, Coloration recherche et développement et la gestion, le développement agricole.

Nous menons l'agriculture / expert agro-industrie qui fournissent la constance de la gomme de Guar (Cyamopsis tetragonoloba) ou la culture de graines de guar. Nous avons mené à bien le projet en Inde, l'Indonésie Russie, Europe, Tanzanie, Soudan etc. Notre équipe va vous aider à acquérir les bonnes graines de qualité, préparation des terres, graines de semis, la gestion de l'irrigation, gestion des insecte, les ravageurs, guar récolte récolte et gestion des éléments nutritifs du sol. Notre équipe contribuera également à la sélection des terres, financiers, planification de la gestion de projet, de stockage et d'entrepôt.

Notre expert possède une expérience complète de travailler sous culture mécanique complète d'irrigation contrôlée, récolte mécanique, mécanique application d'insecticides ou de pesticides en grande surface de 100 à 200 hectares. Nos experts peuvent également aider à comprendre la transformation de graines de guar dans la gomme de guar divisée ensuite la poudre de gomme de guar.

Guar est également utilisé chez les bovins que se nourrissent de l'industrie, en restant partie de gerard semence après que traitement dans la poudre de gomme de guar est utilisée dans l'alimentation des bovins. Elle est riche en protéines et en fibres.

S'il vous plaît nous contacter pour plus de détails.

Friday, 21 November 2014

Next Three tier Panchayat election ( rural area election) and Guar seed rates in 2014-2015

Guar seed rates are under heavy pressure due to over supply in market. Now the rural election will put an extra pressure on guar seed rates. There are three tier elections in Rajsthan in Jan and Feb. There wil be three elections at the same time; village level ( SARPANCH ), Block level ( PRADHAN ) and District level ( JILA PRAMUKH). More than 2000-2500 candidates will contest election in Guar growing belt. Guar will be financier of these elections in rural area.




Candidates will liquidate their Guar stock to contest  the election. Normally village level election are contest on own money by candidates instead of party fund like MLA or MP. 

Guar will come out from farmers storage to market. Village elections are becoming very expensive in India. There is direct interaction of   candidate and voters. candidate spend huge money to influence the voters. Guar is only commodity which is stored for long time in guar growing belt. Mostly big farmers stock the guar at village level, These same big farmers are politically active. Rural peopel are more political active than urban people.

Currently Guar is being traded at rs 4800 in NCDEx and 4500-4600 in Local market. there are clear possibilities that Guar will reach at the level of 4000 in local market before coming village elections. The guar Gum rate may reach up to a level of 115-120/Kg.

If the international energy prices will keep going down then it will directly hit the local guar market with influence of village elections. 

During last assembly election Guar was a political issue. Now Guar will emerge as Political Financier.

Tuesday, 4 November 2014

Will Guar seed and Guar Gum prices, keep falling in year ? What will be the bottom ??

I am predicting split will be at a level of Rs 110-115 level. No one is willing to stock to guar seed everyone is bypassing to next channel. Market is moving toward extreme correction like Gold and Crude oil. Guar has rose from a level of 2100 to 30,000 then stayed on 5000 not it will correct toward 2100. This is reality that there will be correction within this year and then again it will maintain new level. 


 


In future there will be no problem in supply side if there is no adverse climatic condition. Rain-fed farmer will have to grow it and he will keep growing.

Right now there is no election, there is no too much inflation, and there is no too much rise of demand in energy market. Unfortunately, greedy traders have stoked the material in Houston so Oil and Gas companies are not in hurry to buy the commodity. Those companies know that ware house charges of Houston will settle down the price of Guar gum powder, stocked there.

Indian manufacturer can stop it if they take some positive decision and some professional approach. Guar Gum has become like a vegetable in vegetable market in Houston for Oil and Natural Gas Companies. The buyer will come and buy it at any time.

Post Diwali Guar Gum Seed arrival has increased in Rajasthan.

Post Diwali Guar Seed arrival has increased in physical market market .It has reached up to a level to 1,50,000 bag / Day. It wiill reach up to 2,00,000/ day. Don,t be worry it is peak arrival time. The situation will be remain tight in coming three- four months. Guar rates are going down and down ... it has reached 5100 in spot market. In remote locations it is traded at 4500-4600 / 100 Kg. The rates will keep falling below 4000/Kg.

  1. 20/10/2014     - 92583  Qt
  2. 21/10/2014     - 54190  Qt
  3. 22/10/2014      - 23759  Qt
  4. DIWALI GAP
  5. 27/10 /2014    - 42572  Qt
  6. 28/10 /2014   - 92091  Qt
  7. 29/10 /2014   - 93695  Qt
  8. 30/10 /2014   - 94025  Qt

Above quantity is only the seed arrived in Market  (Mandi ) . It is showing a clear trend.  It is not the actual , actual will me more multiple time as local unregistered agent are engaged in Trading and engaged in supplying directly to Factories..



Post arrival guar seed arrival has increased in Rajasthan.
Guar is under double pressure....
  • No more speculative and premium rates
  • The production of other commodity are less.

After a lot UP and Down market stabilizes and rates correct automatically. Like Gold and Crude.Not a surprise if Guar dip below the red line of 4000/ Qt  in future market. in some MANDI rate of guar is coming around 4500/Qt and 4600/Qt.

Rates will improve after February and March but not too much only just because of peak arrival time will be over. 

Wednesday, 29 October 2014

Guar Seed arrival in local market has increased in comparison to last year

 Guar arrival in local market is increased in comparison to last year. In the first 17 days of October it is just double than last year. We are expecting that new crop will saturate the market. As production of other kharif crops are not so good due to the delayed rainfall. Guar is only cash crop with farmer. The next two three months are peak arrival period.

Some farmers were holding it in starting in expectation of good rate. There are no chances of any spike rise in rate. Due to Diwali the market was closed, so farmer will start to carry the new harvest right now. Ariival will increase in coming days.

In Haryana arrival of guar seed has decreased in comparison to last year but it has increased from multiple time from Rajasthan and Gujarat. 


Guar seed arrival up to 16th October from major producing states 
State/ Year
2012
2013
2014
Rajasthan
841
34908
90656
Haryana
578
19363
17046
Gujarat
1762
6771
7580
Quantity in MT.


Tuesday, 28 October 2014

Guar Gum and Guar Seed has removed from MCX ( Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited)

MCX ( Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited)  has got approval from FMC to remove guar from exchange. The trader were not actively  taking part in trading of guar gum on MCX.

There was no trading on MCX since a long time. Investor didn't took any interest in guar trading after De-listing in 2012 by FMC. MCX tried to attract investors but it was useless. Guar is traded on NCDEX and MCX . Now NCDEX will be only exchange where guar will be traded. MCX has stopped trading of guar from last Tuesday 21st October,2014 .

Thursday, 16 October 2014

Natural gas & Crude oil price sliding and Its impact on Indian Guar Gum Industry

Crude oil has reached it lowest level since 2011. and Natural gas is also going down. It is expected that Natural Gas may go up due to winter in Europe. But it is clear that energy market is running out of money. There are two possibilities behind this free fall world economy is not doing well specially US, EU and China. Either  countries are over representing the development or there is over supply of crude oil in market. We can say that the availability of crude oil is more than the expectation.

Natural gas & Crude oil price sliding and Its impact on Indian Guar Gum Industry  

Expect  winter there is no any favorable news for Oil and Natural Gas Industry . The conflict in west Asia is going long . There is no possibility of early settlement. Energy market is running out of money. No one is ready to invest in energy market. If it is right then money drain condition will continue up to next 6 months.

1 Month Natural Gas Prices - Natural Gas Price Chart
Natural gas During Last one Month.


There is some news that US is planning to export its Natural Gas to Europe during this winter to counter Russian Gas. The activity of Natural Gas export is going to large level.  Europe depends on 30% on Russian Gas.

The low rate of Crude oil and Natural gas can change the number in budget of Russia , Saudi Arabia and other countries.There is also news that Libyan oil has again reached to Global Crude oil market. 

1 Month Crude Oil Prices - Crude Oil Price Chart
( Crude oil Price During Last one Month )


Indian Guar Gum industry is totally depend on Natural Gas prices. It is a major concern that 60% Indian guar gum powder is used in Oil and Natural Gas Industry.  If there will be some recovery in Natural gas prices then the drilling and fracking activity will start again on large level. The expectation of oversupply of Guar seed is also another major concern in guar gum Rates. This time if major supply period for Guar Seed.

In today's scenario Guar Seed rate may touch the level of 3500-3700/100 Kg during next three- four months. Hop that it will not touch. This is also festival season so there may be requirement of  cash for farmers. Guar is a all time cash liquid commodity. There are chances that guar seed supply will saturate the Guar Seed Market. Farmer is emerging as major stockist for Guar Seed.

Guar Gum Seed Cultivation and Indian Guar Gum Industry

The Gavar/Guar/Guwar/Guvar bean or cluster bean (Cyamopsis tetragonoloba) is an annual legume. Guar beans have a large endosperm that contains galactomannan gum, a substance that forms a gel in water.


Guar Farmer at Guar Farm : Guar Gum Seed Cultivation and Indian Guar Gum Industry

This is commonly known as guar gum and is used in dairy products like ice cream and as a stabilizer in cheese and cold-meat processing. Derivatives of guar gum are also used in industrial applications, such as the paper and textile industry, ore flotation, the manufacture of explosives and hydraulic fracturing (fracking) of oil and gas formations.

India is the largest producer of Guar Gum, meeting over 80% of the world’s demand. It's a supply chain riddled with a high degree of complexity and opaqueness and a market fraught with uncertainty which has left the Guar Gum industry in India fragmented, unorganized, and underdeveloped.  


Mature Guar Crop : Guar Gum Seed Cultivation and Indian Guar Gum Industry


Yet India strives to meet much of the world’s demand for Guar Gum. The industry complexities notwithstanding, the country’s ability to meet this ever-surging demand is closely linked to the rural farmers’ random and indivdual decision to choose Guar over other competing crops such as cotton for cultivation.


Guar production is concentrated around three western states in India – Rajasthan, Haryana, and Gujarat

These states account for 97% of the total Guar seed produced in India, with Rajasthan alone accounting for 80% of that production. Rajasthan is also home to most of the over 120 Guar Gum processors in the country. Much of the Guar Gum production is exported via seaports along western India. Currently, there is a less-than-adequate infrastructure at these ports, with frequent congestion and long wait times which have resulted in shipment delays.




Sunday, 12 October 2014

Guar International - 2014 Exploring possibilities of Guar Business Development



I attended Guar International-2014, an unique event dedicated to Gar and Guar Gum from cultivation to End Use. Expert of different subject put their views and made a very clear picture in all horizon like

  • Current demand of Guar Gum
  • Export potential and opportunities in Guar business.
  • Market of Hydrocolliods and opportunities with guar to replace other.
  • Demand and future of Shale Gas and Farcking
  • New opportunities for Guar Gum demand
  • Requirement and current activities in R&D in Guar
  • Current stagnancy in Guar Gum Business
  • Value addition of Guar Gum
  • Development in Guar Cultivation
  • Biotechnological approach in Crop improvement
  • Current crop Condition
  • Role of Supply Chain Management in Guar Business
  • Warehousing and Commodity finance opportunities
  • Prediction of rate during  remaining
  • Factor for price prediction.
  • Platform Role of Commodity exchange for Guar Business 



Guar International-2014 ( An event dedicated to guar seed and guar  Industry)

Inaugural message from Agriculture Minister of Rajasthan- Shri Prabhu Lal Saini was motivation reagent. Message . Message of Mr Sameer Shah on the role and involvement of NCDEX in Guar business stabilization was very supporting for the industry. Directly or indirectly NCDEX is playing a major role in re-innovation indian guar gum industry. Indian Guar gum industry is moving from traditional business to a highly professional business.

Guar International-2014 ( An event dedicated to guar seed and guar  Industry)
Alex shown a very clear clear picture about the global demand of Guar. Chris Carpenter of PFPT message was very clear toward quality production and demand. Guar has to be competitive by Quality wise, Quantity wize and technology wise. I was very impressed by  Dennis Seisun of IMR message. He is very positive about the new opportunity for Gaur Gum. Guar has opportunities to replace the other hydrocolloids.  A better packaging and representation of Guar can draw a lot of attention of end users.

Guar International-2014 ( An event dedicated to Guar gum seed Cultivation and guar gum processing

Mr Uday Merchant focused on quality development and investment in R&D by industry. He also focused on loss of blind competition and neck to neck business.  Over production capacity and over processing capacity can lead the industry toward heavy loss. It was knowledge full delivery of message by Dr. Shyamal Purkayastha on  Emerging trends in guar processing, technology and applications.


Guar International-2014 ( An event dedicated to guar seed Processing and  guar Gum importer and End user)

Research work of Dr. Randhawa on biotechnology approach on Guar crop really very impressive. He delivered the key highlights of his work and further opportunities in  crop improvement. His work on Genom sequencing and Identification of key gens in guar crop is good opportunity for Indian  Guar Gum Industry,

Guar International-2014 ( An event dedicated to guar gum seed researcher and guar  gum seed cultivator )


Report of Mr Sidharth Surana was a picture of current guar crop which gave an idea on effect of poor monsoon on current crop. Panel discussion on guar outlook and  guar rate prediction was very interesting.


Guar International-2014 ( An event dedicated to guar gum present and future development )
The participation of Guar Gum processor, Guar Gum manufacturer, service provider, plant & machine supplier, warehouse service provider, print media. This beautiful and knowledgeable event is a brainchild of House of Tefla.

Organizer / financier of  Guar International - 2014 -The matured Guar Gum Seed Crop.

Tuesday, 23 September 2014

Advance Estimate of Guar ( guar gum ) Seed Production in India in year 2014-2015

Most of advance estimate has been released in guar growing states of Rajasthan, Haryan and Gujarat for the year 2014-2015. 2-3% guar seed production comes from rest of states. The final tally of estimated  guar seed production is as follows.

S.N.                                   State                                               Production ( MT)
1.                                   Rajasthan                                               1339806
2                                    Haryana                                                   340000
3                                    Gujarat                                                     179100
4                                    Others                                                      100000
========================================================
 Total Estimated Guar ( Guar gum ) Seed  Production               1'958'906 MT
========================================================

The share of other state of has assumed around 5 % as productivity and production are is very low in Rajasthan.  We are estimating that in this year  there will be around 19'589'060 Bags around 20 Million Bags or ( 2 Crore Bags of 100 kg each). As per my estimate I am expecting a upward correction in guar seed production data of Rajasthan. 

The estimated yield is very lower than last year but overall condition  is not problematic or pathetic. It is satisfactory production. It  can easily complete the demand of  guar gum of world by adding teh cary forward stock of last year.  .

Advance estimate of Guar gum ( guar seed) production-year 2014-2015 in Gujarat shows down fall trends in comparison to last year


Gujarat govt has release the data of Guar gum ( guar seed) crop cultivation area. As per data there is estimate that guar crop is sown on 298'500 Hectare.  This year Guar gum ( guar seed) cultivation area in Gujarat state is  36.8 % lesser than last year, but it is more than before last year (Year-2012-2013).



Advance estimate of Guar gum ( guar seed) production-year 2014-2015 in Gujarat


(Guar data are highlighted in red)



GUAR CULTIVATION AREA, PRODUCTION,  AND YIELD OF LAST SIX YEAR- GUJARAT

S.N.              Year                  Area (Hectare)             Production (MT)              Yield (Kg/Hectare)

1                  2009-10                132'700                          44'700                                 337

2                  2010-11                124'600                          73'000                                 586

3                  2011-12                128'300                          74'500                                 581

4                  2012-13 #               240'000                        --------                                  ----

5                  2013-14 #              472'600                         --------                                  ----

6                  2014-15 *              298'500                         179'100                                600


     * 2014-15 data is as per estimated crop cultivation area  data released by Gujarat state govt.
     # Production data and yield data are not mentioned as I dint get any reliable information


Last year climatic condition were in favor of guar crop cultivation so guar crop cultivation area was increased but in this year the crop cultivation area is more than state govt targets. This year state govt targeted 283'500 Hectare.



Guar seed production area, Production quantity and yield of last few years 


As per an average yield of 600 kg / Hectare we are expecting 179'100 MT guar seed production from Gujarat state.  Which is less than last year but it is more than average. The production estimate is positive. The Guar gum ( guar seed) production is not bumper in Gujarat this year but it is above the average of last years.  There are three  Major Guar growing states Rajasthan, Haryan and Gujarat.