Earlier the cost of cultivation for guar crop was very low because farmer used to do farming with local seeds without any chemical pest control. The good stable rate of gaur seeds has changed the whole scenario. Farmers are planning to take guar as first crop. After looking the complete picture it is expected that the area under guar cultivation will increase 15-20 % in irrigated Guar growing belt of Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and Gujarat. In the raifed area Guar will also replace the other legume and cereal crops.
There is also some mixed news from the other states like Maharashtra, M.P. Andhra Pradesh, Tamilnadu and Karnatka. It is expected that area under Guar cultivation will also increase in these states. Overall the total area under Guar cultivation will increase from 20-30 percent.
The meteorological predication of good monsoon will help farmer to take decision about the Guar Crop. The good Monsoon will lead to timely sowing of Gaur crop and good return to the farmers.
Even there was high rate of Guar seed during the last year but there was no any major impact on the export demand of Guar Gum powder from India. The Export of guar gum is almost same as 2012 export in quantity.
There was complete control of the stocking activity due to high rate as it was more risky to stock guar seeds at high rate.
This year there is stock of guar seed but not with the stockist, it is with the farmers. Farmers are sowing the tight supply of Guar seeds. That is leading to stable rate of Guar seed.
The Guar has changed the principle and law of Economics. At the higher rate there must be loos supply and flood of commodity in market but it is sowing tight supply. The same thing was happened in Ireland during world war, the consumption of Potato was increased at the increasing rate of Potato.
But it is big question that will the scenario of Guar will be stable in coming Year. The farmers are expecting the same and sowing the guar in this expectation but the study is showing the different picture.
The farmers were stoking the guar seed and expecting the hike in Guar seed rate after re-launching of the forward trading of guar seed and guar gum, but there is no any good news from forward market for increase of rate. It is clear that there is existing good stock of Guar seed with farmers
The area under guar cultivation will increase and that will lead to the increase in production. This produce will also flood in the market.
The good arrival of monsoon will also increase the production in the existing guar growing belts.
Whatever the price will be in the next year, it will be actual demand supply - ratio price without any artificial infecting factor and the rate will stable. The stable rate t will lead to the positive environment for the Guar business in world.